Corn Outlook and Strategies Starts at 2:00 PM
Jan 29, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 29, 2014 at 4:45 am.
Grain futures are lower on profit taking and warmer weather forecast. Markets have consolidated into much narrower trading ranges.
The extreme cold throughout the Midwest kept many farmers close to home yesterday. The first day of Allendale’s Ag Leaders 3 day event was a huge success with attendees from all the continents around the world except Antarctica. Today’s session will focus on corn during the first hour and wheat in the second hour. There is time to sign up for today’s sessions at Ag Leaders Conference.
Trader uncertainty is taking some of the excitement out of the market as the South American weather market has run its course. The extreme temperatures early this week has stifled grain movement off the farm. Firmer cash corn basis is being driven by farmer’s inability to move grain.
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The 8:00 hour is when USDA usually announces new sales and/or cancellations. Traders are expecting China to begin moving purchases from US to Brazil, no confirmations yet. The Chinese Lunar New Year starts Friday and goes through Feb 5. No announcement would be expected during the holiday.
The weather markets in South America are basically over for the season. The Polar Vortex which has hit most of central and eastern US is expected to be an "on again, off again" pattern for the next few weeks. The extreme weather is affecting all of agriculture. Ethanol and processing plants are less efficient, moving grain and livestock is hazardous and moving product to the retail counter has slowed down.
The new five year Farm Bill is expected to go to the US House this week and US Senate early next week with approval anticipated by both groups.
Product movement has slowed considerably since the sharp rise is beef prices. Cash cattle traded at 146 yesterday in the south. Beef cutout values were lower on Tuesday with choice down 2.24 at 235.80 and select down 3.39 at 233.67. The CME Feeder index is 171.35.
Pork futures have consolidated as producers struggle to stay current on cash hog marketing’s again this week due to cold weather. The report of PEDv continues to grow which suggests tighter hog supplies down the road. Pork cutout values are up .32.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
- Mar Corn -1 1/4
- Mar Beans -1 1/2
- Mar Wheat -1 3/4
- Feb Cattle -.80
- Feb Hogs +.27
- Mar Dlr -.01
- Mar S&P +.25
- Mar Crude -.60
- Feb Gold +4.00
Chart of the Day
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