Corn Quality a Concern in Drought Areas
Aug 16, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 16, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning in quiet overnight trade. Weather forecasts are remaining the same as earlier advertised. Cooler temps and some rain is slowing maturation of crops. We are getting reports from producers who are starting to harvest. A corn grower in IN is reporting mold and aflatoxin in corn that is 22% moisture and 51# test weight, yield guess about 50 bpa. Western IL producer opened a few fields with moisture levels too high to continue. He was estimating yield at 100+. Yields out of the delta have been excellent. The Allendale Yield Survey will begin on Monday and we will be asking for your participation in the survey. Yesterday, the market was filled with talk of China buying several cargos of soybeans for fall delivery. This morning we will be getting the weekly export sales from USDA. The range of estimates are: wheat 450-550 tmt, corn 350-550 tmt, soybeans 750-950 tmt, soymeal 150-250 tmt, and soyoil 10-20 tmt. Wednesday’s low will be watched by technical traders as major support. A close below those levels could trigger more selling. Cattle markets are waiting for packers to come looking for cattle. Boxed beef prices continue to move higher this week which should allow for at least 1.00 higher to be paid for cash cattle. Friday’s Cattle-on-feed report should show placements for July below a year ago levels. Choice beef was up 1.31 and select was up 1.40. Hog slaughter is running 75,000 head above last week. High feed cost is likely causing some of the increase in slaughter. Product is under pressure as pork cutout values were down 1.31 on Wednesday. Sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on August 28.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn + 3/4
Nov Beans -5 3/4
Sep Wheat +11 3/4
Oct Cattle -.12
Oct Hogs -.07
Sep S&P +1.00
Sep Dlr +.15
Sep Crude -.11
Dec Gold -1.00
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s short term momentum failure in Oct Lean Hogs has the base and recovery attempt on the ropes. If we do see continued selling pressure and a close below the 8/08 $74.82 ½ low this would negate the recovery attempt as a correction in a bear market and could open up the Oct Lean Hogs to surprising losses…Frank La Placa
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Ethanol production in the latest week was 9% lower than last year. That is only marginally better than the 10% lower production made last week.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.