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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn Yield Estimates Grow Close To Trend

Nov 04, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 4, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed. Corn is lower on rain in South America and prospects of a large US harvest. Soybeans and wheat are higher on short-covering.

Traders will be getting positioned this week for Friday’s USDA Crop Production Report. We will get yield estimates for corn and soybeans, acreage adjustments for 2013 (planted and harvested) and ending stock projections. Last Friday two highly recognized analysts put out their yield and production estimates. Both have corn yield at 161.2 with total production at 14.369 and 14.223. The USDA’s last estimate was 13.843 billion bushel. Soybean yield estimates were 43.3 and 42.8 bushels per acre. Total production for soybean estimates was 3.270 and 3.298 billion bushel. USDA’s last estimate was 3.149 billion bushel.

Weather forecasts have a few more hours of dry conditions then rain moving across the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Corn harvest is expected to be 70% complete compared to 59% last week. Soybean harvest should be about 90% complete compared to 77% last week. Brazil soybean planting progress is estimated to be 50% done.

Last week corn futures were down $0.13, soybeans were down $0.42 and wheat was down $0.23. Many technical indicators are suggesting an oversold condition, watch for a pre-report short covering bounce.

There were 275 soybean deliveries against the November contract through October 1st.

This week the trade will be watching for any change in the interest rate policies of the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

Hog slaughter has been stable for the last 4 weeks. Trade is expecting an increase of 20,000 or more this week. The past month has seen cash hog prices fall as much as $7.00 which futures rallied sharply on PED loss concerns. Look for spreads in futures to get some attention as we start the month of November. Pork cutout values were unchanged on Friday.

Cash cattle traded at $132 in Kansas and Texas on Friday. That was equal with the bulk of last week’s action. Supplies of market-ready cattle are tight. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down .57 and select down .94. The CME Feeder Index is 165.11 down .28. Look for support on setbacks in nearby futures.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    – 3/4
  • Jan Beans   +4 3/4
  • Dec Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Dec Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Dec Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Dec Dlr     -.11
  • Dec S&P     +3.00
  • Dec Crude   -.09
  • Dec Gold    -.40
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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