Sep 20, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Could It Be Time To Rally?

Jun 23, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 23, 2014at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher on technical short covering and world unrest.

Look ahead to this month’s USDA Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports in Allendale Ag Leaders next webinar, Tuesday June 24th at 8:00 PM CDT. Register here.

Soybean meal surges in late trade Friday as option traders caught short both puts and calls scramble to cover positions.

Early trade thoughts are for a decline of 1-2% in crop condition ratings this afternoon from last week’s 76% in corn verses 65% last year and 73% in beans verses 65% last year.

CFTC Commitment of traders report showed Managed Money Funds reduced long positions in corn by 9,156 but still holding a net long position of 137,280 contracts. They sold a net 33,519 contracts in soybeans and 1,807 contracts in wheat.

U.S. corn bids for August is near $205 a tonne at the gulf which is still about $4 cheaper than Brazilian corn but a little bit higher than Argentine quotes for July.

The CME Group will raise the maximum storage fee for its wheat futures contract in July, the first hike in three years, since the price difference or spread between the two front contract months was wide enough over the last month to trigger an increase, the exchange said on Friday

Iraq’s crumbling government was dealt another blow over the weekend when ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) fighters captured more area along the Syrian border.

On Saturday, Putin "calls on the opposing sides to halt any military activities and sit down at the negotiating table." Putin also supported Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko’s decision for a unilateral ceasefire. The peace-promoting gesture contrasted Putin’s previous order Saturday to put troops in central Russia on "full combat alert."

Tight supplies of feeder cattle and excellent forage conditions were reasons for placement figure to be down 7% from a year ago on USDA COF report. The On-Feed number was in line with trade expectations. Marketings were less than a year ago mainly due to feedlots holding cattle longer because of high replacement cost. Futures will likely start steady firm while keeping an eye on outside market activity. Beef cutout values are firm with choice up .43 and select up .28. The CME feeder Index is 204.92.

Cash hogs picked up $5.00 last week and pork was up over $6.00. For the week slaughter ran 4.0% less than last year while pork production ran 2.0% over last year. Heavier live hog weights are now making up for 6% slaughter numbers. Pork cutout value is down .62.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

Jul Corn   +3 1/4    
Jul Beans   +14 1/2
Jul Wheat   +5 1/4
Aug Cattle  Steady-Higher
Jul Hogs    Steady-Higher
Sep Dlr     -.03
Sep S&P     +.50
Aug Crude   +.19
Aug Gold   -2.40

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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