Crop Conditions Improve In Soybeans
Aug 14, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 14, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grain futures are higher after a sharp 2 day sell off. The USDA crop conditions report out yesterday afternoon held the G/E at 23% this week for corn however the P/VP category did increase by 1% from last week. Soybean conditions showed improvement by 1% in the G/E category with P/VP dropping 1% from a week ago. The weather forecast is keeping most of the cornbelt cool for the next 9 days then a ridging pattern could develop for a few days. Moisture will vary throughout the Midwest and provide a chance for soybean yield improvement. Corn futures seem to be changing focus from the hot, dry weather and production loss to demand destruction and technical chart patterns. It is important for bulls to stop the profit taking retreat in grains. A few observations: Dec corn as of last night’s close was .63 off the contract high and Nov soybeans were .70 off of Friday’s high. A close today either side of the 20 day moving average should be watched for potential direction indicator. Contact your Allendale Rep for more details. Livestock futures put in a strong performance on Monday as President Obama announced a government buying program for pork, lamb, chicken and catfish. The lower corn price translated into potentially less liquidation of herds and bull spreading in futures. Grain prices will likely impact spreading in the pork complex. Boxed beef was higher again on Monday. Choice beef was up 1.94 and select was up 1.77. Pork cutout values were down .33. Allendale will begin the Annual Allendale Yield Survey next week. We appreciate your participation.
Markets as of 4:50 AM
Dec Corn +5 1/4
Nov Beans +9
Sep Wheat +4
Aug Cattle +.22
Aug Hogs -.07
Sep S&P +3.00
Sep Dlr -.10
Sep Crude +.36
Aug Gold +4.20
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong trade in Oct Live Cattle has set the stage for a run at the 5/21 pivot high of $127.50. Yesterday’s close above the 7/30 $126.45 ½ high has taken out the nearest technical resistance ahead of the pivot high. However, a setback at these highs where we have found sellers in the past could set up a correction to the 8/02 lows of @123.55.
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
USDA indicated the spring wheat crop is a full 65% harvested. This is far past the normal level of 24% in this week. We have a good crop, US prices are too high compared with competitors, and exports are running far too low to meet USDA’s hopes
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