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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Crops Off To A Near Record Start

Jun 17, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 17, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are lower as crop ratings are off to a great start.

Last week’s heat and rain through the Midwest improved the corn crop by 1% to 76% good/excellent compared to 68% on the 10 year average. The soybean conditions fell by 1% to 73% compared to 64% average.

Spring wheat conditions were 1% better than last week and 1% less than the 10 year average. Winter wheat good/excellent held steady at 30% while the poor/very poor increased by 1%.

The NOPA Crush data released yesterday makes the old crop soybean quarterly stocks, due for release on June 30, even more important. The May Crush was 5% higher than a year ago which means crush for the next 3 months must average 9% below last year. Be reminded that last year’s crush during June, July and August was the lowest in 9 years.

Funds were net sellers of 3,000 wheat, 8000 corn, 4000 soybeans, 2,000 meal and 1,000 soy oil on Monday.

The economic calendar has Housing Starts and CPI out at 7:30. The FOMC meeting begins today with their minutes released tomorrow.

The discount of futures to cash cattle is providing support to futures. Retail buying for weekend clearance and stocking up for the July 4th holiday is supporting product. Beef values were sharply higher on Monday with choice up 2.37 and select up 2.39.

Lean hog futures fell sharply on Monday as traders covered long positions. Hog slaughter dropped but pork production was higher than a year ago due to larger weights. Pork cutout values were up 1.66. Chart support crosses at the 20 day moving average in the August contract.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   -1 1/4   
  • Jul Beans   -5 3/6
  • Jul Wheat   +2
  • Aug Cattle  +.70
  • Jul Hogs    +.27
  • Sep Dlr     +.05
  • Sep S&P     +5.00
  • Jul Crude   -.52
  • Aug Gold   -10.30

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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