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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Dec Corn Hits $8.00 and Reverses

Jul 23, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 23, 2012 at 5:10 am. Futures are lower after opening at new historic highs in Dec corn and Nov soybeans. Weather forecasts have moved the high pressure ridge further west for the last half of this week which should make way for some moisture to cover 85% of Midwest. This is cooler and wetter than what was expected going home on Friday. This week, some big US crop tours take to the road. Cropcast weather service will be looking over the corn and soybean field as they tour the Midwest starting today. The US Wheat Quality Council will be checking the North Dakota wheat fields starting tomorrow. Cash basis remains strong in soybeans but some central cornbelt locations have lowered corn bids. Traders are estimating China needs more soybeans to finish out the year but are concerned about how they will act with record setting prices. The CFTC report on Friday put non-commercials with record long positions in wheat, when earlier this year they were record short wheat. Managed money continued to build long positions in corn and soybeans. The weekly crop conditions will be released this afternoon at 3:00 pm. Traders are expecting further deteriorating of corn and soybeans from the G/E category. USDA gave us the Cattle-on-Feed data last Friday which was considered to be neutral and in line with trade estimates. This week we have the bi-annual cattle inventory report on Friday at 2:00 pm. Following cow slaughter from the beginning of the year, we have seen herd expansion from Feb through May. However, in June, cow slaughter jumped compared to a year ago due to poor pasture conditions, weak feeder prices and high feed cost. Friday’s data could still show an increase in herd buildup because data is collected as of July 1. Boxed beef on Friday was lower, choice was down 1.27 and select down 1.02. Pork cutout was up .01. Check out the Allendale Research Center Special Offer. Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm, you can sign up today.
 
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Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -20 3/4
Nov Beans   -37 1/2
Sep Wheat   -26
Aug Cattle stdy-lwr
Aug Hogs    stdy-lwr
Sep S&P     -15.75
Sep Dlr     +.26
Sep Crude   -2.78
Aug Gold    -11.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s impressive rally in the Oct Live Cattle has left a potential triple bottom on the chart. However we cannot confirm any type of chart pattern unless we see a higher close tomorrow. We feel that the today’s rally taking out the last four days of price action is very positive going forward. Now all bullish decisions should be risked against the $119.50 low established on 4/27.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
In June, Chinese home prices stopped their eight month slide. Some suggest this is a sign China’s monetary easing is taking effect. China’s economic growth has been slowing in recent quarters.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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