The Allendale Wake-Up Call
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Demand For Old Crop Soybeans Provides Support
Aug 25, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary at 5:30 am.
Grain futures are mostly lower except for the September contract of soybeans.
Traders Focus Today: Demand for old crop soybeans and meal, good crop development weather and "frost watch" is on the agenda.
Allendale's 25th Annual Yield Survey is underway - only 5 more days of collecting data.
Your help will make a difference. You can add your farms information by going to www.allendale-inc.com. We will be releasing the results of the survey on September 3rd at 7:30 am.
The CME had order routing problems which delayed the opening in grain markets until 9 pm.
Cash soybean and meal demand is strong. Soybean basis at processors in central IL went from 3.10 to 3.25 over the November contract.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
ProFarmer released their survey estimate on Friday afternoon. They put the corn yield at 169.3 verses USDA last month’s estimate of 167.4 bushels per acre. Total corn production was set at 14.093 billion bushel compared with USDA’s 14.032 billion bushel.
Their soybean yield was estimated at 45.35 which was close to USDA’s estimate of 45.4 bushels per acre. ProFarmers estimate for total production was 3.812 billion bushel compared to USDA’s 3.816.
This weekend saw heavy rains across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana with more to come this week. Traders will be watching for any chance of early frost. There is nothing in the 15 day forecast suggesting a frost concern, however.
The wheat market will be concerned about the rains in North Dakota and Canada, the Russian/Ukraine situation and the technical posture of the charts.
Grain traders will be concerned about first notice day for the September contracts, end of month and Labor Day weekend ahead of us.
The US dollar Index is continuing to rally which increases price competition for US exports.
Cattle on Feed report showed July Marketings at 90.7% of a year ago. That was smaller than the average guess of 92.5% and Allendale’s 92.4%. This was the smallest July Marketing since the data series started in 1996. At 92.6% of a year ago, placements were the smallest of all previous Julys since 1996.
Cold storage numbers released by USDA on Friday showed larger than expected supplies of beef and pork in storage August 1.
Beef cutout values were weak on Friday with choice down .69 and select down 1.16. Cash cattle are expect to trade steady-lower this week. The CME Feeder Index is 218.18. Pork cutout values are down 2.58. Early calls for the CME opening would be steady to lower.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
- Dec Corn -2 1/4
- Nov Beans -6 3/4
- Sep Wheat - 1/2
- Oct Cattle Steady-Lower
- Oct Hogs Steady-Lower
- Sep Dlr +.15
- Sep S&P +6.00
- Oct Crude +.18
- Oct Gold -2.20
Chart of the Day
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