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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Dry Fields and Headlines Lead Markets

Jun 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 7, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are higher. Headlines continue to provide support for the bulls as the Midwest is hoping for rain early next week. The Argentine farmers have halted sales of corn and soybeans for one week. A news story reporting Brazil would run out of beans to sell after July provides lift for old crop beans. Goldman Roll should start today and will likely impact spreads. Weather forecasts continue to provide support on breaks in futures however the financial instability of the Eurozone has provided investor concern. We will be getting a look at supply and demand next Tuesday morning from USDA. You can get Allendale’s estimates for the USDA Supply and Demand Report by clicking on the blue link. Traders will be watching for new export news at 8:00 am this morning. Estimates for today’s weekly export sales to be released at 7:30 am are: corn 450 to 750 tmt, soybeans 600 to 850 tmt, wheat 400 to 500 tmt, soymeal 50 to 150 tmt and soyoil 5 to 15 tmt. Cash corn markets were .81 over the July in some locations. Living from rain to rain is very difficult as some fields will receive needed moisture and others are missed. The outlook for next week suggests there will  be some chances of rain across the Midwest however the European and US models are not consistent on the amount. This should create volatility as traders get positioned for Sunday night. Producers in southern IL and IN are telling us they will have corn tasseling in 10 to 14 days. Bernanke will speak to the Joint Economic committee on Capitol Hill at 10:00 am EDT this morning. Trade will be listening for any indication of a possible QE3. The cash cattle trade is at a standstill with bids and ask several dollars apart. Choice beef was up .73 and select was down .38 on Wednesday. Pork cutout values were up 1.75. Can we continue with the risk-off attitude for another day? Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +3 1/2
Jly Beans   +10 1/2
Jly Wheat   +1/4
Jun Cattle +.32
Jun Hogs    +.07
Jun S&P     +3.50
Jun Dlr     -.17
Jun Crude   -.17
June Gold   -10.80
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong close above the 6/01/12 pivot high of $5.80 has defined the 6/01/12 low of $5.51 as key support. If we are to believe that July Corn is going to continue higher making an attempt at the 5/21/12 pivot high of $6.44 ½ is not out of the question.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The president of the European Central Bank said euro zone governments are in charge of fixing EU member debt problems. This essentially dashed the market’s hopes that the ECB would step in and provide additional support. The ECB estimates euro zone economic growth from -0.5% to +0.3% in 2012.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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