Early Harvest Yields Continue To Surprise Producers
Sep 24, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 24, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are higher on short-covering led by soybeans.
Traders were expecting soybean conditions to improve but USDA kept the G/E at 50%. Soybean harvest was 3% complete compared to 9% average. With the majority of harvest still ahead of us the recent rains have to be viewed as helpful to crop development.
Corn conditions improved by 2% to 55% in the G/E category which is a counter-seasonal move for this late in the growing season. The recent rains must have been beneficial to late planted corn. Harvest progress increased by 3% to 7% completed versus 16% average.
Argentina corn growing areas remain dry and there is some talk of switching to soybeans. It seems a little early to be making those decisions as optimum corn planting time is mid-September to mid-October. The rule of thumb in the US is "plant in the dust, your bins will bust." An example is the corn being harvested now in the cornbelt was planted early in dry conditions. Yields continue to be reported in the mid 200’s.
With the lack of new fundamental news, traders will be focusing on other influences. The next few weeks are packed with some major economic events such as: Congress’s debate on the budget, their standoff on the debt ceiling and the potential tapering of the bond buying program. All of these issues could have an impact on futures markets.
The grain futures also have the Quarterly Stock Report on Monday morning at 11:00 AM. Traders are looking at the recent trend in corn ending stocks and would expect a smaller number as the late harvest could have reduced supplies in the last month of marketing year.
Soybean stocks will be watched closely and could have the biggest impact on prices as the USDA wrangles with that 125 million bushel carryover target.
Livestock futures reacted to the bullish cattle on feed report and now are waiting for an improvement in cash trade. Beef cutout values were higher on Monday with choice up 1.16 and select up .83. The CME Feeder index was up .03 at 156.92.
Lean hog traders are trying to anticipate the USDA Hogs and Pigs report on Friday afternoon. The trade is looking for answers to "where have all the hogs gone?". Pork cutout values were down .12.
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Markets as of 4:45 AM
- Dec Corn +2
- Nov Beans +13 3/4
- Sep Wheat +1 1/4
- Oct Cattle +.25
- Oct Hogs +.40
- Dec Dlr +.08
- Dec S&P -2.00
- Nov Crude -.48
- Dec Gold -9.70
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