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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Farmers' Planting Pace Well ahead of Average

May 08, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 8, 2012 at 5.15 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher on strong cash and short covering. The outside markets are not providing any support as dollar is higher and crude oil is down 1.00. Planting progress for corn was 71% vs. 32% average and soybeans were 24% vs. 11% average. Emergence of corn was 32% while soybeans were 7% emerged. Spring wheat plantings were 84% complete compared to 19% last year. Winter wheat conditions were 1% to 63% good to excellent. Safras reduces Brazil soybean harvest to 66.82 million metric tons. Thursday at 7:30 am the USDA gives us May Supply and Demand. Trade estimates for corn ending stocks in old crop corn is 749 which would be a reduction of 56 million bushels from USDA’s last month estimate. Soybean ending stocks are expected to fall 36 million bushel from USDA’s previous estimate. There are very wide ranges in for the first estimate of new crop (2012-13) corn ending stocks 1.209 up to 2.072 and soybeans 87 up to 250 million bushel. The wide ranges give us the opinion that prices could be choppy through the report on Thursday. Cattle and hog futures recovered from lower opening giving the first sign the liquidation may be coming to an end. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up .19 and select down 1.43. Pork cutout values were down .41. Pork production in US on a weekly basis is running 4.9% higher than last year. China’s pork prices have fallen for 14 straight weeks due to a slowdown in consumption and oversupply. Follow us on twitter at Allendale_paul. Stay in touch with Allendale Research by subscribing to the Allendale Research Center.
Markets as of 5:15AM
Jly Corn    +7
Jly Beans   +4 3/4
Jly Wheat   +5 1/4
Jun Cattle -.12
Jun Hogs    -.30
Jun S&P     -7.25
Jun Dlr     +.14
May Crude   -1.06
June Gold   -11.60
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Monday’s inside range day at the bottom of the down trend implies that the Wheat markets negative price action could be slowing down. If the market breaks the 5/3/12 $5.99 1/2 low further weakness should not surprise. This markets attempt at recovery will be capped until the 3 consecutive closes at $6.55 1/2 are taken out.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Much of the North Central Corn Belt saw rains of 0.50 to 1.50 over the weekend. Other areas received less than 0.50 inch. The West will be dry through the remainder of the week. The East will see 0.40 to 1.00 inch today then dry for the rest of the week. Wet weather through this past weekend then dry conditions will be conducive to crop development. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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