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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Finding Support on Light Volume

Apr 05, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for April 5, 2013 at 5:10 am. We are seeing a slight bounce this morning from the idea that we have over done prices. May corn is down 63 cents so far this week and fell 31 cents last week. We could get a push higher today but the trade is still concerned with the Quarterly Grain Stock numbers from a week ago. Last year, on this date, May corn closed at 6.58 and we had a carryout number of just over 800 million on the April Supply and Demand report. We currently have a carryout of 630 million but we know that USDA will make adjustments. The quarterly stock number had seen an increase of close to 400 million bushels. USDA will give us a new breakdown next Wednesday. Bird flu is still the biggest concern in the soy complex and continues to drag prices lower. Exports yesterday were light for beans and continue to show that China hasn’t been buying like they have in the past. We usually see exports shift to South America this time of year and we could be getting that switch as Brazil and Argentina get deeper into harvest. Wheat has been strong the last few days and could continue to strengthen if we see China buying wheat. No new exports were reported yesterday but all eyes will be watching at 8:00 this morning to see if 500K tonnes of wheat was sold to China. Wheat is up about 7 cents for the week while corn and beans have broken hard. The dollar is up this morning and should be watched close after having a big rally yesterday and giving back all its gains before the close. The strength came from Japan announcing a huge $1.4 trillion Quantitative Easing program. Also the ECB yesterday stated that they are still going to keep interest rates low and the Euro sold off from that news. If the dollar rallies, commodities tend to find pressure just as if the dollar falls, commodities are supported. Cattle are higher with talks that cash cattle are remaining steady with last week. Box beef yesterday had choice up .24 (191.72) and select down .36 (188.25). If you are not a subscriber to the Allendale Advisory Report I suggest you should sign up today. We expect some volatile markets as we move into the summer and you want to be in touch.

Markets as of 5:12 AM

  • May #Corn    +1 1/2
  • May #Beans   -10
  • May #Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Apr #Cattle  +.05
  • Apr #Hogs    +.10
  • Jun Dlr     +.05
  • Jun S&P     -4.25
  • May Crude   -.30
  • Jun Gold    +2.80

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

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