Sep 18, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Focus Turns To November 8th Report

Nov 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 1, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed in a very quiet session. Corn has seen a 1 ¼ cent, wheat 2 ¼ and soybeans 6 cent trading range overnight.

Traders are now turning their focus to the next USDA report that could have important consequences on grain prices. On November 8 we will get USDA’s planted and harvested acreage adjustments for corn and soybeans as well as production numbers for 2013. Yield will still have the biggest impact.

Allendale released estimates yesterday, corn yield 158.7 bushels per acre and soybean yield 42.4 bushels per acre. Ending stock estimate for corn is 1.990 billion bushels and soybeans 180 million bushels. Informa and FC Stone will be out with their estimates later today.

We saw "buy the rumor, sell the fact" attitude after the large export sales numbers yesterday. Export sales were almost twice as large as was expected by the trade for corn and soybeans. Corn sales are at 66% of USDA target compared to 60% last year. Soybeans are 86% sold compared to 71% last year and wheat is 69% compared to 56% last year.

The International Grain Council raises their forecast for world wheat production to 696 mmt from their last estimate of 693 mmt.

A USDA Attaché in Argentina lowers their corn production to 24 mmt versus 26 mmt and lowers wheat production by 1.5 mmt to 10.5 mmt.

The October live cattle contract expired at 134.50 after a surprisingly large 3.05 wide trading range. USDA finally released the October Cattle on Feed report which was in line with trade estimates. October Cold Storage report was released Thursday afternoon which was originally scheduled for the Oct 22. At the end of September beef stocks rose by 15 million lbs. over August to total 445 million pounds. This is the largest beef stocks number in five years. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .51 and select down .01. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was .15 higher at 165.39.

Hog slaughter will likely wrap up the week up with a 4% decline versus last year. That is about a 5% difference from what the Hogs and Pigs report said we should be slaughtering during this period. Pork in cold storage was up 17 million lb. in September for total pork stocks figure of 566 million lbs. This was an increase less than the normal of 30 million lb. seen in September.  Pork cutout values were up 1.42.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    – 1/4
  • Jan Beans   +2
  • Dec Wheat   +0
  • Dec Cattle  +.05
  • Dec Hogs    +.10
  • Dec Dlr     +.27
  • Dec S&P     +2.00
  • Dec Crude   +.05
  • Dec Gold    -6.60
Chart of the Day

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