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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Friday An Important Day For Market Confidence

Aug 30, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn again following wheat’s strength. Remnants of Isaac are headed toward the Midwest, the exact path is still to be determined but the moisture will be much appreciated. Ethanol production number yesterday was below last week and below the amount needed to hit USDA target. Geoff Cooper from RFA mentioned on the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday night that ethanol production facilities have become more efficient and the USDA could find excess corn in that category on the balance sheet. Friday is becoming a very important day for market news this week. Russia will be holding a news conference, Chairman Bernanke will be speaking in Jackson Hole, WY at 9:00 CDT and it is first notice day for September contracts at the CBOT. All this news will be followed by a long weekend where trading will not begin until 7:00 PM on Monday evening. Weekly export sales will be announced this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are: corn 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes, soybeans 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes, soymeal 150,000 to 250,000 tonnes, soyoil 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes and wheat 450,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Money flow was a driver to price yesterday as funds bought 12,000 corn, 8000 beans and 5,000 wheat contracts. Will they be back buying today as we end the month? Basis for beans in the interior was weaker by as much as a dime at most processors. August live cattle futures last trading day is Friday at noon. The strength in futures is providing confidence for feedlots holding out for stronger prices this week. A few cash cattle trade in the north at steady money. Cash bids in the south are 117 to 118 while offers are 122 to 123. Cattle feeding losses are still running about $150 per head. Product values are lower, choice down .99 and select down .99. Pork cutout values were down .67. Livestock futures have been supported by fund buying. Only a few days left to participate in the Allendale Yield Survey, we will stop collecting data at 2:00 pm Friday,
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/4
Nov Beans   -3 1/4
Sep Wheat   +2 1/2
Oct Cattle +17.5
Oct Hogs    -.02
Sep S&P     -4.00
Sep Dlr     -.06
Oct Crude   -.20
Dec Gold    -3.60
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Oct Lean Hogs put in an outside range day up. This implies a loss of negative momentum. Going forward, in order to negate the down trend and enter into a base and reversal phase, we need to see a close above the 8/14 $77.77 1/2 pivot high.  However, if the contract low of $72.07 ½ does not hold we should not be surprised by the continuation of the down trend…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Hurricane Isaac, at 200 miles wide, is 40 miles Southeast of New Orleans. Storm surge of 6 to 12 feet are expected off the coast of Louisiana. Winds could reach 100 miles per hour. The grain industry will watch for any damage to export locations.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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