Futures Traders Crave More Fundamental News
Oct 04, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 4, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat slightly higher, soybeans slightly lower.
Markets are missing USDA data releases. The weekly export sales (Thursday morning), the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (this afternoon), Crop conditions (Monday afternoon) and probably the Crop Production and Supply & Demand report (next Thursday) will be missed. Trading volume is deteriorating and the trading ranges will likely become narrower as the Government shutdown continues.
Traders are now convinced the shutdown will continue into the debt ceiling deadline on October 17th.
Soybean basis was steady to higher at the gulf as South American competition decreases going into early next year. China is still closed for the holiday.
Japan says they bought 118,456 tonnes of food quality wheat from US and Canada.
Stats Canada will release wheat production numbers later this morning as trade is expecting a number near 33 mmt.
River basis is firm as rain slows harvest in the Midwest.
Harvest yield results continue to come in with substantially better than expected results. It should be noted, however, that producers in South Central MN and North Central IA are starting harvest with less than average yields for corn and soybeans.
The Deutsche Bank roll is selling the Nov 13 and buying the Nov 14 soybeans. There are three more days to go in this roll and the Goldman roll will start on Monday and last through next week. They will be rolling long Nov 13 to long Jan 14.
Livestock futures trading volume has dried up. Traders are concerned about the settlement process for the October Lean Hog contract which goes off the board on Monday the 14th. Without the USDA cash hog data, the CME is unable to calculate the CME Hog index. With this uncertainty traders are reducing their position size to manage risk until USDA data comes back on line.
Watch for headlines to move markets and expect trading volume to trend lower until Washington gets back to work.
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Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn + 3/4
- Nov Beans -4 1/2
- Dec Wheat +3 1/4
- Dec Cattle -.25
- Dec Hogs +.20
- Dec Dlr +.16
- Dec S&P +4.50
- Nov Crude +.28
- Dec Gold -2.00
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