Get Ready For The Fireworks Tuesday Morning
Dec 30, 2011
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 30, 2011 at 5:10 am. Grain markets have consolidated overnight as traders position for Tuesday morning. There will be no trading Monday or Monday night with grain futures opening at 9:30 on Tuesday morning. The past 9 sessions have focused on the weather in Argentina. We expect plenty of fireworks on Tuesday as weather forecasts will be very important in determining the opening. Today the USDA will release the weekly export sales report at 7:30. The estimate for corn is 400 to 600 tmt, soybeans is 300 to 500 tmt and wheat 200 to 400 tmt. The funds rebalancing will be watched closely next week. However would not expect them to sell the 21,000+ corn contracts or buy the 21,000+ wheat contracts all at one time. They will likely spread it out over several days. As we close out the year of 2011 we would expect traders to have a bias to the long side due to dry weather in South America. The next big USDA report will be less than 10 days away when we return on Jan 3. Allendale will get its estimates for the report out next week. There has been no cash cattle trade this week. Packers will likely show their hand late today. Cutout values were stronger on Thursday which is helping packer margins. Pork cutout values had little change on Thursday. Livestock futures saw profit taking yesterday. We expect more position evening going into the long weekend. Today is your last chance to sign up for the Allendale Leaders Conference in 2011. All of us at Allendale want to wish you a Prosperous and Safe New Year!
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Corn: 3 to 5 higher Beans: 1 to 3 higher Wheat: 3 to 5 higher
Live Cattle: 10 to 20 higher Lean Hogs: 20 to 30 higher
Dollar: .08 lower Crude: .29 higher Gold: 31.30 higher
Allendale Advanced Charts
After a failed attempt at taking out Wednesday’s high of 6.46 1/4, the corn market headed south on Thursday. For now this looks like nothing more than a small correction. Support remains at 6.34. Today’s close for the year end will be key. A close below support could lead to a gap getting filled next week.
Nelson Notesfrom the desk of Rich Nelson
Traders note the US dollar has appreciated to new highs for the current uptrend. It is now priced at its highest level since January 11. At the January 20 and 21 annual Outlook Conference, Allendale will reveal its longer term upside projection. This is bearish to commodities overall.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.