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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grain Futures Give Back Gains

Jan 18, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 18, 2012 at 5:21 am. Grain futures are lower overnight as traders give back some of yesterday’s gains. As for weather in South America, Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc has commented: "The bottom line in Argentina allows timely rainfall back across the nation late this week and into early next week. The predicted rainfall should be sufficient to slow or stop the declining moisture trend and offer a short term improvement to topsoil moisture once again. Subsoil moisture levels will remain low. Once the event passes, a return to drier biased conditions may resume in eastern parts of the nation. In southern Brazil, the bottom line calls for no prolonged period of dry weather. Timely rainfall in the south will help prevent the region from getting as dry as it once was with the exception of western and southern Rio Grande do Sul which is still quite dry. Too much moisture is still a concern for crop areas from Sap Paulo into Goias and southern Minas Gerais for the coming ten days." You will get the 2012 growing season forecast for the US on Friday afternoon at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference. Hope to see you there. The marco market short covering of the euro provided support across the commodity complex on Tuesday. The EU financial situation is mostly talk with not much action. It is expected to influence prices for some time. Beef cutout values declined on Tuesday on heavy offering. Choice was down .81 and select was down .95. Pork product was .48. Livestock future closed strong on Tuesday can we get follow through to suggest we are working on a seasonal rally?
Markets as of 5:21 AM
Corn: 2 to 3 lower                Beans: 8 to 9 lower Wheat:3 to 4 lower
Live Cattle: 20 to 30 higher                                      Lean Hogs:10 to 30 higher
Dollar: .39 lower    Crude: .68 higher                   Gold: .80 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
After a 60 cent decline in price in just 2 sessions, March corn opened strong only to put in a weak close. Support crosses at 6.00 area. A close below that level could trigger a move to 5.77. First level of resistance is near 6.20 today.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn production was raised by 48 million bushels. This was a surprise as the industry was expecting a 45 million bushel decline. A moderate 50 million bushel increase for old crop exports helped cushion the blow for almost no change in projected ending stocks for Aug 30, 2012. We will point out old crop stocks counted, as of Dec 1, were 251 million bushels above the average guess. This implies first quarter usage was disappointing (likely feed use)…again.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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