Grain Futures Looking For Catalyst To Set Direction
Apr 12, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are slightly higher this morning. Temperatures again are below 30 degrees in parts of IL and IN at this hour but no wide spread damage is expected. Position traders are looking for a catalyst to push markets in one direction or the other and until that time, spreading will play a major role in price movement. The corn to soybean ratio has moved out to over 2.5 to 1 which is historically advantageous to beans when deciding what to plant. Significant rain should occur west of a line from Houston to Detroit this weekend. The rain would slow corn planting but we are hearing of some producers will be done with corn before rains get here. Producers in Indiana have been aggressively planting soybeans this week. Soybean futures have taken over the leadership role at the CME. Traders have been favoring the long side of soybeans especially with funds holding record long positions. We expect setbacks in the short-term to be well supported. However, we must be on the watch for an event that changes fund trader’s mindset. Stay in touch with your Allendale Representative. USDA Weekly export sales are expected to range from 700 tmt to 1.0 mmt for beans, 120 to 220 tmt for soymeal, and 2 to 10 tmt for soyoil. Weekly export sales for corn are expected to range from 650 to 950 tmt. Wheat estimate is 400 to 600 tmt. Cash cattle had a light volume trade in TX yesterday at 119 compared to last week at 121 to 122. Boxed beef was 1.02 lower for choice and .33 higher for select. Pork cutouts were up 1.64 to 79.53. Futures have been oversold and rallies are partially attributed to technical buying when downtrend line was taken out overnight. The Allendale "Planting Special" 6 months for $99.00 will be available through April 20. Sign–up TODAY!
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn +1 3/4
May Beans +3 1/2
May Wheat +2 1/4
Apr Cattle +1.62
Apr Hogs +.525
Jun S&P +3.75
Jun $ Ind -.11
May Crude +.34
June Gold -3.40
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs have been trading on both sides of 20 day moving average. Look for support in June hogs at the March 23rd low of 91.52, which could set up an inverted Head and Shoulders bottom.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Temperatures last night were a little cooler than expected. Though it may not cause wheat production losses, it may set the crop back temporarily.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.