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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grain Futures Move Higher after Long Weekend

Jan 17, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 17, 2012 at 5:17 am. Grain futures rebound due to oversold conditions after USDA report. Now that the USDA numbers are out of the way trade will be back focusing on the EU debt concerns, possible Greek default and weather in South America. The Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed funds increased their long positions by a sizeable amount in corn and beans. Rains in Southern Brazil this past weekend were beneficial but Argentina will have a period of dryness until Jan 23 when the next system is expect to dump significant moisture over the region. Temps are not expected to be extreme during this spell of dryness. Southern Brazil is starting to harvest early season corn. Yields are coming in less than last year due to the drought in that area. The USDA reported cattle trading in Texas and Kansas Friday at 123.00 which would be 2.00 to 3.00 higher than last week. That was definitely a supportive factor to CME Futures on Friday. Choice beef was down .41 and select was down .54 on Friday. Pork cutout values were up .60. Due to holiday on Monday it is expect cash hogs will start out this week lower as packers have a short week. There are only a few days left to pre-register for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference. Joel Hertz and Drew Lerner will be our featured speakers at this year’s conference. We have seats available for the meeting but the Holiday Inn is sold out. Rooms are available at the Hampton Inn just down the road. Shuttles will be provided.
 
Markets as of 5:17 AM
Corn: 8 to 10 higher            Beans: 20 to 22 higher        Wheat:7 to 9 higher
Live Cattle: called higher                             Lean Hogs:called higher
Dollar: .66 lower    Crude: 2.09 higher                 Gold: 34.70 higher
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans trended lower as the session progressed on Friday and finished well below the 50 day moving average. However the market did hold above yesterday’s low of 11.50. Watch for the gap below as a magnet with potential downside target of 11.04 as support.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn production was raised by 48 million bushels. This was a surprise as the industry was expecting a 45 million bushel decline. A moderate 50 million bushel increase for old crop exports helped cushion the blow for almost no change in projected ending stocks for Aug 30, 2012. We will point out old crop stocks counted, as of Dec 1, were 251 million bushels above the average guess. This implies first quarter usage was disappointing (likely feed use)…again.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.comwww.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

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