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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grain Futures Quiet but Lower

Oct 05, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 5, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower on profit taking after a two day rally. The Labor Department’s unemployment number which will be released at 7:30 this morning will be very important for the grain trader’s attitude. The USDA crop production and Supply and Demand numbers will be out next Thursday. Estimates for soybean yield are rising with some thinking average yield could increase to 40 bushels per acre. Producers have been pleasantly surprised with soybean yield improvement due to late season rain. The $2.85 decline in November futures since Sept 4th is giving reason for traders to think the reversal on Wednesday could be real. The trend is still down but a strong close today could provide further short covering going into next week’s report. Corn yields nationally could see a slight adjustment on the USDA report however harvested acres will be the key number. Demand is really struggling for corn out of the US. South Korea made a symbolic purchase of corn from far eastern Russia overnight. US weekly corn sales for the last 3 weeks are 84% below last year’s pace. The price of US corn is 10 to 15 dollars higher than Brazil or Argentina. Informa will be releasing their estimates for corn and soybean production at 10:30 today. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange is estimating 4.5% increase in corn acreage by Argentina farmers this year. Live cattle traded yesterday at 124 which is 1 to 2 higher than last week. Cattle traders are concerned about possible deliveries which has caused some profit taking late in the session on Thursday. Market ready hog supplies have tightened and packers are fighting to get enough supply for a Saturday processing. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down up .65 and select down .44. pork cutout values were up 1.84.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -3
Nov Beans   -1
Dec Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle -.17
Oct Hogs    +.15
Dec Dlr     +.02
Sep S+P     +1.25
Nov Crude   -.70
Dec Gold    -4.70
 
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Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle is trying to recover from its momentum failure last week. We are not seeing much strength in the latest recovery attempt which leads me to believe that we are going to see another leg lower in this move. A break below the 9/27 $123.95 low could expose this market to a retest of the contract lows…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A Reuters newswire poll of Australian based analysts found a wheat production expectation at 21.44 million tonnes. That would be another decline from the Australian government’s latest 22.5 mt estimate. Disappointing rains in the past two weeks was the reason. USDA will be revising its 26 mt estimate lower on next Thursday’s supply/demand report.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
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