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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grain Futures Turn Red Overnight

Feb 22, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 22, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain markets are quiet but lower following yesterday’s large trading ranges. With the USDA Outlook Forum only a few days away, spreading has been a market mover. It seems that traders are expecting a large corn number and a smaller soybean stocks number out of USDA meetings. We are hearing a lot of talk about a seasonal trade of being long beans and short corn. Greece will receive the 130 billion euros and avert a crisis. Many are concerned that the new elections in April could reverse some of the mandated cuts made to get the money. This problem will likely stick its head up again. The Iran situation is now taking center stage pushing crude oil prices higher. Tensions continue to mount between Israel and Iran. Weather in South America should be beneficial to the later season crops. Dryness in the Midwest will get more attention in upcoming weeks as many areas are a bit dry. The weekly export sales will be announced on Friday at 7:30. USDA will provide their outlook presentation to the press at 8:00 CST on Friday morning. The reduced production by packers finally is tightening beef supplies enough to strengthen cutout values. Choice was up2.34 and Select was up 2.77. Pork cutout values were down .39. Sign up today and reserve your free seat for our Allendale 2012 Road Series meeting in Carrington, ND and Riverside IA.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Corn    -2 to -3                        Live Cattle     +00 to -05                   US Dollar Index         +.18
Beans -5 to -6                        Lean Hogs      +02 to +07                  Crude Oil                    -.43
Wheat -3 to -4                        S&P Index      -2.25                            Gold                            -3.40
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn tested the downtrend on Tuesday and closed near session lows. The consolidation we have seen for the last month would suggest a potential sharp move in the direction of breakout when it occurs.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The National Oilseed Processors Association reports January soybean crush at 142.813 million bushels. This was a little less than expectations of 144.5 million and may be considered a little disappointing. Though the year to date (Sep – Jan) marketing year total is down 4.9% versus last year we will point out January levels were only 1% smaller. Crush needs to run equal with last year from February to August to meet USDA expectations.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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