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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grain Markets Wait for FSA Data

Sep 17, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 17, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher as traders wait for the release of the FSA’s prevent plantings report.  

The eroding basis in soybeans has traders willing to get out of longs in futures but will producers really move a lot of beans at harvest? Their bins are empty and the need for cash is not a reason to sell at weaker prices.

Weekend rains may have helped the later maturing soybeans and the forecast is for another system to move through the cornbelt later this week. Crop conditions showed beans are maturing rapidly and if moisture help is on the way, it needs to get here quickly. The USDA dropped soybean conditions by 2% to 50% G/E.

Corn harvest is picking up speed as more of our customers are getting started. Early harvest yields are still coming in better than farmers were expecting in most areas. Crop conditions for corn dropped 1% to 53% in the good to excellent category.

The NOPA crush number was in line with what was needed to meet USDA projections on the September Supply & Demand report. The quarterly stocks report released on September 30 now becomes a very important number in determining ending stocks for soybeans.

The FOMC meeting begins today and the minutes of the meeting will be released tomorrow. Will the Fed begin tapering the money they dump into the system every month? The trade is expecting about a $10 billion reduction.

Lean Hog futures are the favorite of managed money as their long positions continue to grow and set new records on a weekly CFTC Report. Pork cutout values were down 1.45 on Monday. The recent hot weather, PED virus and the buildup of breeding herds are keeping market hog supplies tight.

Beef cutout values were mixed with choice up .33 and select down .25. Cash cattle trade has no bids at this time. The CME Feeder Index was up .40 to 156.33. Live cattle futures are waiting for some positive news from the product side as fed cattle supplies will get tighter in coming week. Friday the USDA will release the September COF report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +3 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +2 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +3 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.27
  • Oct Hogs    -.72
  • Dec Dlr     -.13
  • Dec S&P     -2.25
  • Oct Crude   -.52
  • Oct Gold    -.50


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