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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grain Quiet As We Wait

Aug 08, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 8, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower this morning led by profit taking in corn and wheat. The weather has become secondary to the upcoming USDA Supply and Demand report. The average yield estimate by trade analysts is 127.3 for corn and 37.75 for soybeans. Historical data suggests that the final yields will be less than the August numbers however NASS feels confident they have improved their sampling methodology which should allow them to capture the true loss in yield. Our studies show that the futures set the high price before the worst yield is known. The Goldman Roll started yesterday which is having its effect on the spread closes. The longs in the corn market will likely stand their ground going into the report even with a test of trendline support. The advertisement of more rain in the Midwest has soybean traders taking some profits ahead of Friday’s report. A close above or below the 20 day moving average will be important for chart watchers in soybeans. Boxed beef closed higher on Tuesday. Choice was up 1.41 and select was 1.55 higher this is likely a confirmation the seasonal lows in beef prices are behind us. Cash cattle markets are expected to trade 1.00 to 2.00 higher this week. Pork cutout values were 1.45 lower however futures seem to be getting support from cattle. Expect quiet markets with bouts of volatility as we approach Friday’s report. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report for updates.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -5 1/2
Nov Beans   -5
Sep Wheat   -9 1/4
Aug Cattle +1.20
Aug Hogs    +1.07
Sep S&P     -4.50
Sep Dlr     +.16
Sep Crude   -.66
Aug Gold    -3.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Oct Live Cattle saw a weaker trading range. The market closed near the open and is indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. The uptrend remains intact as long as the 8/2 pivot low of $123.55 is not violated.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A Reuters newswire poll of analysts found an average trade guess for corn of 127.3 yield, 11.026 billion production, and ending stocks of 660 million bushels. Soybeans were estimated at 37.8 yield, 2.817 billion production, and 112 million ending stocks. The wheat crop was seen at 2.205 billion, little changed from USDA’s July report.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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