Grain Traders Waiting For Sale Confirmation
Nov 17, 2011
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 17, 2011 at 4:00 am.
Comments are a little earlier than normal as I have to catch flight to New York for a NFA Board meeting. Grain markets have been quiet with trading ranges established early in session. The factor providing support to grain markets is demand or the anticipation of demand. It was reported yesterday that China bought 600,000 tonnes of soybeans from the US however we have seen no confirmation. The USDA Weekly sales numbers out this morning at 7:30 will be watched closely. The daily announcement of sales usually is released about 8:00 am. Estimates for sales this week have corn at 250 to 600 tmt, soybeans 450 to 700 tmt and wheat 300 to 500 tmt. We continue to watch weather but South American conditions are near ideal. Ukraine remains the dry spot. Crude oil was the major supportive factor to corn and soyoil yesterday after the announcement of reversing the flow of the pipeline from the gulf to Cushing, OK. We are not going to talk about the macro markets this morning but keep your eye on the dollar index as a directional indicator. As I mentioned yesterday we believe the recent lows in corn, beans and wheat are critical support. A close below these levels could be significant going into the weekend. Cattle are waiting for cash sales this week. Choice beef prices are heading for the $200.00 level. Pork continues to struggle ahead of a usually poor demand week. Call our office or follow us at www.alendale-inc.com
if you have any questions.
Markets as of 4:00AM
Corn—2 to 3 lower Beans—2 to 3 lower
Wheat—2 to 3 lower
Live Cattle—30 to 40 lower Lean Hogs—0 to 10 higher
Dollar— .30 higher Crude— .07 lower
Gold— 13.20 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn traded quietly on Wednesday just below the 20 day moving avrage and downtrend. The 6.50 level is becoming key resistance now since the downtrend, 62% and 50 day moving averagge all converge there. Look for support in the low 6.30 area with stops likely building below that level.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Analysis firm, Oil World, is surprised by the soybean to corn acreage shifts in South America this year. They project Argentina will increase plantings 7% from last year’s 4.56 to now 4.87 million hectares. The group suggests a slight contraction in soybean ground from 18.89 million hectares to 18.76
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