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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Higher For Second Week

Aug 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher on short covering after yesterday’s sharp decline. Corn and soybeans are higher for the second consecutive week.

Crop tour releases estimates on total corn and soybean production today at 1:30. On the final day of the tour they visited IA and MN where corn yields were higher than average. IA corn was estimated to have an average yield of 171.9 versus a three year average of 157.1. MN yield was pegged at 181 versus the 3 year average of 172.5. The USDA estimate for IA is 163 and MN is 166. Soybean pod counts were below the 3 year average.

Cash basis was firm for corn in most locations. Soybean basis was weak. The basis at the gulf was steady.

Funds were sellers of an estimated 14,000 contracts of corn, 5,000 soybeans and 3,000 wheat. First notice day for September contracts is next Friday.

The Farm Progress Show which runs from Tuesday through Thursday of next week has cancelled all field demonstrations due to lack of maturity of harvestable crops. Event planners say this is the first time in 60 years crops are unable to harvest.

Weekly export sales data was less than trade was expecting for new crop corn and soybeans. However the 2013/14 USDA soybean export projection is almost 50% sold which is well ahead of normal.

Beef in cold storage at the end of July was 464 million lbs. as reported by the USDA late yesterday. For the month, this represents a 17 million lb. drawdown. The only larger drawdown in the past 30 years for the month of July was in 2011 which had 18 million lb. withdrawal of stocks. There were a few cattle trading at 200 in the Nebraska yesterday. Boxed beef was higher, choice was up.38 and select was up .84. The CME Feeder Index was up .50 to 155.63.

Pork stocks almost always fall during July. USDA’s report showed a 20 million lb. drawdown to 545 million. The normal drawdown during July is 34 million. Pork cutout values closed out yesterday up .06 after being sharply lower at midday. October futures held horizontal support on the charts after breaking key moving averages.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +4 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   + 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.02
  • Oct Hogs    +.07
  • Sep Dlr     +.03
  • Sep S&P     -1.50
  • Oct Crude   +.20
  • Oct Gold    +4.20


View the Chart of the Day

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