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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Higher in Quiet Trade

Oct 17, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 17, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher as traders wait for fresh news. Farmers are wrapping up harvest and have little interest in selling. We heard of some movement of soybeans in Minnesota yesterday. The elevators and resellers are taking advantage of basis improvement. China bought 295,000 tonnes of Canadian spring wheat. Trade is also watching for results from an Algerian wheat tender. There has been more talk about Iran threatening to dump crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to get back at the surrounding Arab countries who are participating in the embargo. South American crop size is being raised by a well-known crop scout. Lack of demand from exports has traders concerned as sales have been running at 89% below last year levels in corn over the last 4 weeks. Today we will see the ethanol production numbers and tomorrow weekly export sales data will be released. Funds were neutral yesterday in corn and soybeans. We still have technical support at 7.32 in December corn. November soybeans closing below 15.00 are not adding confidence to bulls. Harvest progress is causing some analysts to call for a seasonal bottom in for corn and soybeans. We will let the market tell us which direction it will be going. Boxed beef was higher again Tuesday with choice up 1.14 and select up 1.66. The reduced slaughter is supporting beef values. Pork cutout value was down .07 on Tuesday. Weaker grain futures are causing traders to liquidate some of their bear spreads in the Lean Hogs.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4
Nov Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   +5 1/4
Dec Cattle +.20
Dec Hogs    -.02
Dec Dlr     -.30
Dec S+P     +.75
Nov Crude   +.06
Dec Gold    +3.70
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle has established the 10/12 low of $125.35 as the new pivot low that this market must close below in order to reconfirm the downtrend. Until this market does make a dramatic move outside of its sideways range, further consolidation is expected…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The China National Grains and Oils Information Center raised its estimate of Chinese corn production from 197 million tonnes to 201. 2012 Soybean production was lowered from 13.0 to 12.8 million tones. For perspective, USDA currently estimates those two crops at 200.0 and 12.6 mt.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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