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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Lower And Allendale Conference Starts At Noon Today

Jan 20, 2012


Grains Lower And Allendale Conference Starts At Noon Today
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 20, 2012 at 5:20 am.Grain futures are lower overnight as traders take profit. The macro markets are influencing commodities this morning as dollar is stronger and crude is weaker. Cash corn and soybean markets remain strong as grain merchandisers try to pry grain away from farmers. News wires were reporting on Thursday that China may have bought up to 20 cargoes of beans over the last 2 weeks. The only confirmation of a sale by USDA was 120 TMTs to China yesterday morning. The USDA will release the weekly export sales at 7:30 this morning. Estimates are wheat 350-600 TMT, corn 500-850 TMT, and soybeans 500-900 TMT. Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange reports that Argentina farmers have resumed planting corn and soybeans after recent rains. The Argentina Ag Ministry now projects corn planting of 5.0 million hectares versus previous estimate of 4.90. Drew Lerner will be in the house this afternoon to give those present a complete forecast of 2012. The G20 meeting in Mexico will end today. The ideas that the IMF is asking for $500 to $600 billion to boost their rescue plan for the PIIGS has caused hope in the EU. Trade is also watching Greece’s negotiation of debt with creditors. Watch news wires for results. Overnight futures are higher as the spread between choice and select beef is narrowing. Choice was down .99 and select was up .78 on Thursday. Futures posted a strong performance yesterday as traders believe cash trade will be higher again this week. Packers have cut back on daily slaughter which suggests fed supplies are very tight. Pork cutout values were down .56 on Thursday. Futures regain most of Thursday’s losses overnight. Hope to see everyone at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference today.
Markets as of 5:20 AM
Corn: 2 to 3 lower                Beans: 5 to 7 lower  Wheat:0 to 3 lower
Live Cattle: 1.25 to 1.50 higher                   Lean Hogs:50 to 75 higher
Dollar: .17 higher     Crude: .62 lower                   Gold: 8.10 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
March feeder cattle contract has a strong uptrend in place with new contract high posted on Thursday. The lower green up trend support line should be import technical support. A close below that line could signal a sharp sell-off.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for world corn production from 853 to 861 million tonnes. World wheat production was similarly raised from 683 to 690 million tonnes.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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