Grains Prepare for Export Data
Apr 26, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are mostly higher. The excitement of confirmed sales to China was not enough to hold corn futures up yesterday. This morning at 7:30, the USDA will give us the Weekly Export Sales. Trade estimates are: corn 800 to 1,000 tmt, soybeans 900 to 1,250 tmt, soymeal 150 to 300 tmt, soyoil 5 to 15 tmt and wheat 400 to 650 tmt. The trade is starting to pay attention to the recent drying trend in the eastern Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan with no rain in the forecast for the next 10 days. US weather models have moved the cool temps further to the north for this weekend. Planting progress will likely be disrupted by measurable rain over the next 10 days. Ethanol production dipped 2% below last year in the latest week. In the 19 weeks left of this marketing year (September 1 - August 31) we need to drop to production 4% under last year for the remainder of the year in order to not beat USDA corn usage estimates. Cattle futures are showing signs of recovery after several weeks of sliding prices. The BSE/Mad Cow scare may have put in the season low but a close above 114.00 in the June is needed to give bulls some confidence. Beef prices were higher again on Wednesday. Choice was up .55 and select was up .13. Very light volume of cattle traded in TX and KS at 118 to 119, most offers are at 122. Pork cutout values were down .75. Lean hog futures continue to struggle as export demand concerns weigh on traders. The Allendale Research Team is putting together The Allendale Webinar Series. Complete details should be released by early next week. If you know of anyone who should be receiving the "Allendale Wake Call" all we need is their email address.
Markets as of 5:10AM
May Corn +3 1/4
May Beans +1 1/2
May Wheat +4 3/4
Jun Cattle +.27
Jun Hogs -.47
Jun S&P -1.50
Jun Dlr -.03
May Crude -.17
June Gold +6.00
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on for our subscribers:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs found strength on Wednesday and created an inside bar on the chart. The bulls would like to see more stable trade like this in coming sessions as it would be a sign of a bottom forming.
Our subscribers have access to technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn traders may have some concern about feed demand with Tuesday’s BSE announcement. Allendale research found that feedlots inventories did decrease in the initial three to five months after each of the past three findings. Interesting that USDA did not consistently drop corn for feed numbers though.
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