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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Quiet After Obama Win

Nov 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 7, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mixed this morning in a narrow trading range. President Obama wins another 4 year term. The outside markets are reacting to the election results with a weaker dollar and higher metals. Grain traders will now focus on getting positioned for Friday’s report.  China will be auctioning 400 tmt of beans on Thursday. We also should be getting Brazil’s crop production numbers from CONAB tomorrow. Trade averages were released by newswires for Friday’s USDA report and the estimate is for lower corn production with higher ending stocks. The slowdown in corn usage is the main reason for increasing ending stocks. Soybean production is expected to be on average about 30 million bushel greater than last month. However, ending stock estimates average only 3 million bushels higher than last month. The aggressive Chinese demand is supporting this rationale. CME has lowered the margin requirement for corn and some spreads. The Deutsche Bank roll ends on Thursday and Goldman roll starts today. Livestock packers have been trying to bring their margins back in line. The recent weakness in product has pushed packer margins into the red by $80.00 per head. Slaughter is 17,000 head less than the same week a year ago. Boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday with choice up .63 and select up 1.16. The cash hog price turn around yesterday is providing support for futures. Pork cutout was down 1.19 on Tuesday. Subscribe to the Allendale Advisory Report. Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference is January 25 and 26, 2013.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +2 3/4
Jan Beans   -1 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/2
Dec Cattle +.05
Dec Hogs    -.05
Dec Dlr     -.12
Dec S+P     +2.50
Dec Crude   -.68
Dec Gold    +9.90
 
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Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Jan Soybeans retraced Monday’s weak trade and is beginning to put in what looks to be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom pattern. This pattern is not valid until we see a close above the neckline of $15.76…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
An official with the Goias Agricultural Federation suggests farmers in the states of Mato Grosso and Goias are now having to replant soybeans. Some of the acreage planted in late September and early October has not emerged. The trade still looks for Brazil to harvest a record crop. The question is whether it will be above USDA’s 81 mt estimate.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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