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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Quiet after USDA Report

Jun 13, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 13, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are slightly lower. The market survived the first USDA report during live trading although there was an increase in volatility for about 4 minutes. Next change to trading hours will occur on June 25th at which time open outcry will close at 2:00 pm instead of 1:15 pm. The USDA numbers yesterday were bearish corn due to the unchanged ending stocks numbers when trade was looking for sizeable drops. Soybean data was positive. Weather is still the key to potential rallies due to extremely dry conditions in the Midwest. The models have put more rain in for next week and cooler temps. World Weather Inc. says, "The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress late this week and into early next week as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes later next week with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another…" The trade will be turning to estimates for the June 29th Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage numbers very soon. We have a key macro event coming up on Sunday, June 17, the Greek Parliamentary election. Headlines out of Europe will be a market mover for commodities. The technical support area to watch in Dec corn futures is the 5.00 level. A close below that level could signal more selling. Cash cattle trade has been inactive early this week with very light demand. Boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday. Choice down .21 and select was down 1.44. Pork values continue to strengthen as it was up another. Pork values continue to strengthen as it was up another .91. June Lean Hog last trading day is tomorrow. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which will be held on June 26th. Rich Nelson will be discussing weather with Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -1
Jly Beans   -1
Jly Wheat   +5
Aug Cattle unch
Jly Hogs    +.02
Sep S&P     -2.00
Sep Dlr     -.16
Jly Crude   -.o3
Aug Gold    -.06
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs rejected the 62% retracement level on Tuesday and are now trading near the 50%.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Tuesday’s USDA report was considered disappointing for corn. Old crop ethanol was raised by 50 million bushels while old crop exports were lowered by 50. Ending stocks were left unchanged at 851 million bushels. The trade was expecting stocks to be lowered as corn for feed use was expected to be raised now that corn is cheaper to feed than wheat. The trade was expecting new crop stocks to fall but USDA left all numbers unchanged.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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