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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Quiet in Overnight Trade

Nov 02, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed with soybeans giving back some of this week’s gains. Several ag futures markets showed reversal signals yesterday. Traders will be watching the close for further technical indicators. We are in a time period where the two largest index funds are rolling out nearby positions into deferred contracts. Duetsche Bank starts their roll today. They will be rolling from Dec 12 to Dec 13 in corn, Goldman’s roll will start on Wednesday and they will move positions from Dec 12 to Mar 13 contracts. The weather forecast is nearly the same as we have been talking about for the last few days. Argentina is dry and northern Brazil is receiving rain. The models are conflicting about the next system building across Argentina. One model is extending drying until late next week with lighter amounts of moisture while the other has rain starting midweek. Weather will have an impact on Sunday night trading as the forecast should be much clearer. Export values are getting closer to making US corn competitive. Where will we find the corn if prices favor US markets? Export sales will be released at 7:30 am with the trade expecting corn 100 to 350 tmt, soybeans 500 to 700 tmt, meal 120 to 225 tmt, soyoil 0 to 20 tmt and wheat 350 to 500 tmt. Yield estimates for next Friday’s USDA Crop Production reports are coming out. FC Stone released their estimates yesterday afternoon and raised corn yield to 124 bpa and soybean to 39.1 bpa. In October, USDA estimated 122 bpa for corn and 37.8 bpa for soybeans. Informa is expected to release their numbers this morning at 10:30. Cash cattle trade is done for the week at 126 to 127. Product remains under pressure with choice beef down 1.27 and select down .35. Pork cutout values were .13 lower. Livestock futures may see further influence by the weak close on Thursday. Get the full details in the Allendale Advisory Report.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1
Nov Beans   -12
Dec Wheat   +1 1/4
Dec Cattle -.05
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     +.27
Dec S+P     -1.00
Dec Crude   -.81
Dec Gold    -7.70
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Allendale Advanced Charts
This wheat report is becoming quite the déjà vu experience as we continue our 4 month grind sideways. Yesterday we topped out in the middle of the range. We continue to wait for a breakout one way or the other on the chart to make a move. The pivot high is $8.95 the pivot low is $8.40 ¼ a close above or below these levels will confirm the breakout…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The first winter wheat rating of the season was started Wednesday. USDA suggested only 40% of the crop was rated good or excellent as of Sunday night. This was the worst start of any year since USDA started this data series in 1986/87.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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