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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Rebound On Election Day Morning

Nov 06, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 6, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are higher as prices rebound from Monday’s selloff. Traders are still concerned about South American weather and the potential size of their crop. Northern Brazil received rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for early next week. Argentina is dry until late this week. Celeres a local crop analyst out of Brazil is projecting a 79.02 mmt which would be a record for the 2012/13 crop year. CONAB is due out with production numbers on Thursday that will be watched closely by the trade. USDA says corn harvest is 95% complete and soybean harvest is 93% done. Winter wheat conditions fell by 1% to 39% in the good/excellent category which is a record low for a crop just getting started. Traders are preparing for the Supply and Demand report on Friday morning. Out of the last 6 years when corn production was down in October there were further declines in November. Soybean production has a history of increasing in the November report as traders are looking for a 32 million bushel improvement. The spread between choice and select beef is widening. The reduced demand at white table cloth restaurants on the east coast caused by Super Storm Sandy is pressuring choice beef. While the high feed costs are causing cattle to be moved a little sooner than normal. Pork cutout values were up .93 on Friday. Stay in touch with all the facts by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. Exercise you obligation to VOTE today!
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   +14
Dec Wheat   +7
Dec Cattle -.02
Dec Hogs    +.02
Dec Dlr     -.06
Dec S+P     +4.50
Dec Crude   +.45
Dec Gold    +7.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Due to yesterday’s short term momentum failure, we can now technically say that the uptrend has ended. We are looking for a close below $76.55 to call a peak and reversal that will ultimately lead to downtrend and what could be considerable losses…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Weekend rains totaled as much as 1 inch for areas in Argentina outside the main growing region. Southern Brazil was dry. The next chance of rain for Argentina and Southern Brazil is from Thursday through Saturday. Rains of 0.50 to 1.00 inch will fall in Argentina then move into Southern Brazil and total 0.20 to 0.60 inch. The real excitement with weather right now is Central/Northern Brazil
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