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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Slide On Profit Taking

Dec 05, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 5, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as fundamental news battles a positive technical picture. The higher prices yesterday are being met with some profit taking this morning. Light volume is also increasing the volatility in prices at the CME.

Weekly export sales report will be released this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are: corn 850 to 950 tmt, soybeans 900 tmt to 1.2 mmt, soymeal 250 to 300 tmt, soyoil 20 to 40 tmt and wheat 450 to 550 tmt.

Though ethanol production fell in the latest week it is still posting a very strong pace, much better than USDA’s whole-year estimate. Allendale is currently leaving its estimate of corn for ethanol unchanged. USDA will do the same on next week’s supply/demand report.

The EPA hearing on its proposed changes to the Renewable Fuels Standard is scheduled for today between 9:15am to 9:00 pm ET.

Estimates for next week’s crop report have been released by the newswires which suggest trade is expecting USDA to lower ending stocks on domestic wheat, corn and soybeans.

Canada raised its wheat production 4.5 mmt from their last estimate and Australia raised their crop by 1.7 mmt. Right now, US wheat prices are more competitive on the world markets which improves chances of getting some export business.

As it stands right now this week’s hog slaughter is running 1.6% over last year. This is a tough pill to swallow when all the trade has heard for months is how bad the PED issue would hit in December. The premium of futures to cash is weighing on nearby contracts. Pork cutout values were down 1.82 on Wednesday. 

Cattle country is still talking about steady to possibly higher trade for this week. Wholesale beef hit $200 for two separate weeks in November but has not been able to post a weekly close clearly above that mark. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up .30 and select up .09. The CME feeder Index is 165.36.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Mar Corn    -4 1/4
  • Jan Beans   -6 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -5 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.02
  • Feb Hogs    -.37
  • Mar Dlr     -.03
  • Mar S&P     -.25
  • Jan Crude   +.35
  • Feb Gold    -12.50
Chart of the Day

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