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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Start Higher for Third Day

Oct 31, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 31, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher for a third day but can they hold gains into close? Our thoughts and prayers are with those living and dealing with the aftermath of Super Storm Sandy. Yesterday I traveled to Noblesville, IN to visit our branch office. I was surprised to see the amount of corn and soybeans to be harvested. By noon the rains came driving them out of the fields again. Winter wheat planting is way behind in southern Indiana and Ohio due to wet field conditions. The rule of thumb is to have wheat in the ground by November 1st. We’re not hearing any chatter from trade about that issue, only from producers. The Argentina wet weather is delaying planting of corn. News stories out yesterday talked about a 20% decline in production because of too much moisture delaying planting progress. The greater concern should be the delay in harvest and meeting shipment commitments due to the later than normal planting progress. The USDA was closed Monday and Tuesday but is expected to be open today. No announcement on when the harvest progress will be released. Trade analysts surveyed expect corn to be 93% and soybeans 88% harvested. Delivery notices for November contracts will be announced later this morning with some floor traders expecting 200 to 500,000 bushel of soybeans put out. They are citing the reason for these deliveries is the sharp rise in freight rate to the gulf. Funds are starting to roll positions today. We expect another quiet session as east coast traders come back online. The presidential election is less than a week away which will keep traders nervous and quiet. Cash cattle traded at 126.50 to 127.00 which is steady to .50 lower compared to last week. Boxed beef was mixed. Choice was up .67 and select down 1.20. The spread between choice and select has been widening. It could be suggesting that cattle feeders are cutting losses by moving cattle early. The east coast storm is also creating problems in consumption of beef and movement of product. Pork cutout was down .46 on Tuesday. Thanks to Al Ambrose and the Allendale Team for putting on an outstanding Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. Those who were unable to attend can get a recorded copy on Friday morning. See www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +6
Nov Beans   +10 3/4
Dec Wheat   +10 1/4
Dec Cattle -.07
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     -.17
Dec S+P     +9.50
Dec Crude   +.71
Dec Gold    +7.00
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs had an inside range day yesterday. This may imply that we have lost momentum to the upside and are beginning a sideways to lower trading range…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Hurricane Sandy has moved inland. Monday night’s winds hit in excess of 80 miles per hour. Power has been cut to 7.4 million people from South Carolina on up to Ohio. Authorities in New York noted the closely followed "storm surge" brought 13 feet of seawater. That was three more than the previous record. The storm will continue westward for a few hours before the forecast suggests a Northeast turn. Trading at the New York Stock Exchange floor as well as in financial debt products was not seen Tuesday.
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