Sep 18, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Stop At Chart Resistance

Aug 07, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for August 7, 2014 at 5:30 am.

Grain futures are lower after the rally on Wednesday. The buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine boarder and next week’s USDA release of US yield estimates are keeping traders on edge.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

 

Wheat has led the oversold recovery in the grain complex due to poor quality wheat in the southern Midwest and in the European Community. Supply of milling quality wheat is a concern to hedgers in the market. Nearby futures have recovered to test the 50 day moving average. A close above 5.73 ½ in September futures is needed to accelerate a buying frenzy.

Reuter’s survey of trade analyst suggests USDA will deliver a new crop ending stocks of 2.005 billion bushel of 2014/15 corn compared to USDA’s 1.801 billion last month. Traders estimate soybean stocks at .414 billion bushels compared to USDA’s last month figure of .415.

USDA weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30. Trade estimate for old crop corn is 100,000-200,000 tonnes and new crop 800,000-1,000,000 tonnes, wheat 600,000-800,000 tonnes, old crop soybeans 100,000-200,000 tonnes and new crop 1,000,000-1,200,000 tonnes, old crop soymeal 50,000-150,000 tonnes and new crop 250,000-450,000 tonnes, old crop soyoil 0-20,000 tonnes and new crop 0-20,000 tonnes. (Updated export sales results available, here).

Funds are estimated to have bought a net 6,000 corn contracts and 3,000 in soybeans and 7,000 wheat contracts on Wednesday.

Russia's veterinary service says they have decided to ban US poultry imports as part of Putin's order to prepare a list of food import bans. They say the decision on the US and EU food import bans is "to be quite substantial".

The CME is looking for your comments on suggested changes in the lean hog and live cattle contracts. Click here to voice your opinion.

Brazil says they can help meet the Russian chicken demand but will be unable to fill pork needs.

A few fed cattle traded in Nebraska at steady prices with last week. Beef values are weak with choice down 1.30 and select down 98. The CME Feeder Index is 224.56.

Russia had a ban in place on US pork through most of 2013 due to our use of ractopamine. That was lifted earlier this spring as they could not find adequate supplies of pork from the EU. During May, we shipped them 21 million lbs. of pork, this represented 5% of our exports that month. Pork cutout value was down 1.65.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Dec Corn   -2 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -4 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -3 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.12
  • Oct Hogs    -.75
  • Sep Dlr     +.04
  • Sep S&P     +3.75
  • Sep Crude   -.20
  • Oct Gold   -2.50

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

 
 
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