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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains under Pressure as Harvest Continues

Oct 03, 2012


Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for October 3, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are coming under pressure once again. This is the third day in a row beans and wheat are selling off but today corn is following suit as well. Beans continue to find weakness as we continue to hear better than expected yields and better conditions in South America. Beans also have a bearish technical picture that keeps sellers selling on any rallies. Taking out 1550 yesterday and closing below it keeps the downtrend intact. Beans may target the gap near 1480 next if we are unable to rebound in the next few days. FC Stone released yield estimates after the close yesterday. They have bean yields almost 3 bushels above USDA. Their current number is 38.2 bu/acre up from 36.7 last estimate. USDA is currently at 35.3 bu/acre. They have corn yields increasing as well to 123.9 bu/acre. This is up from their last estimate of 121.4 and USDA sitting at 122.8. The trade was expecting steady to lower yields so this number was more of a surprise. Informa will release estimates on Friday during trading hours. The expectations for exports this week will most likely remain low since China has been on Holiday and we are just not seeing demand pick up for corn. The rally due to supply issues has probably been priced in and demand will have to pick up for prices to go much higher from here. The outside markets have had little impact on grains this week and once again remain quiet this morning. The global economic picture hasn’t improved much but it just hasn’t been talked about. This has given most of the world’s stock markets a boost this week. Cattle closed stronger yesterday with traders hoping to see strong cash trade this week after $3 lower last week. Wholesale beef found a recovery yesterday with box beef finishing higher. Choice was up $1.30 to 190.49 and select increased .14 to 176.76.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -9
Nov Beans   -16 3/4
Dec Wheat   -8 1/2
Oct Cattle +.25
Oct Hogs    +.70
Dec Dlr     +.03
Sep S+P     +.25
Nov Crude   -.55
Dec Gold    +5.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs have clearly broken out to the upside and have established the trend as up. The market has defined the 9/28 $73.40 low as the new pivot low that this market must break in order to negate the uptrend…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Brazil: The Trade Ministry reports corn exports in September set a record at 3.15 million tonnes. The previous record was the August level of 2.76 mt. The Ministry had reported August exports to the US of 43,999 tonnes (one cargo). No country specific data is available for September.
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