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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Halloween and USDA Reports on the Same Day?

Oct 31, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 31, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short-covering ahead of the USDA updating several reports today.

Farmers take a well needed break from harvest after working countless hours before the rain moves across the Midwest. This should give them a chance to do some necessary repairs and move some grain out of on-farm storage. The forecast is for this system to drop .5 to 2.0 inches of rain over the next 48 hours. Then a drier, warm forecast for the following 5 days.

There were no deliveries against the November contract of soybeans as cash market premiums remain strong. Farmers holding on to beans and export demand are two reasons we are not seeing deliveries even with November futures over January.

The USDA will give us the export sales for the last 3 weeks in a cumulative number. It will not be broken down by week. Trade estimates for the weekly export sales report update are: corn 1.9 to 2.5 mmt, soybeans 2.4 to 3.0 mmt, soymeal .8 to 1.1 mmt and wheat 1.5 to 2.0 mmt.

Funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of corn and wheat while net buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts on Wednesday.

If you didn’t have time to listen in on the October Ag Leaders Webinar you can NOW, click here.

Soyoil use for biodiesel production during August was the largest since December of 2011 (the month before the $1.00 tax credit was dropped).

CFTC released Commitment of Traders report for Oct 15 yesterday afternoon. Managed funds were still heavily short corn and they increased long positions in soybeans and wheat.

Cargill announced late Wednesday that they will not buy any cattle that have been fed Zilmax until the animal welfare issues are resolved.

The USDA rescheduled the October 18 Cattle on Feed Report for today at 2:00 pm. Traders are concerned about the placement number being above last year. Some trade sources believe that due to better pasture conditions and tight supplies of feeder cattle placements we may be below last year’s record low number.

October cattle contract stops trading today at 12:00 noon. Beef cutout values were higher on Wednesday with choice up 1.44 and select up 1.97. The CME Feeder Index was 165.24 down .11.

Weaker cash hog markets due to large hog runs have carried over to the futures. The weather system moving across the Midwest has allowed farmers to catch up on any delayed hog movement. Futures remain in an uptrend with support in the Dec contract at 89.90. Pork cutout values were down 1.41.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +3 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +8 1/2
  • Dec Wheat   + 3/4
  • Dec Cattle  +.10
  • Dec Hogs    -.32
  • Dec Dlr     +.14
  • Dec S&P     -4.5
  • Dec Crude   +.06
  • Dec Gold    -14.70


Chart of the Day

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