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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Happy Thanksgiving from Allendale!

Nov 23, 2011


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 23, 2011 at 5:00 am. All of us at Allendale want to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving and safe holiday. We have a lot to be thankful for, living in the United States of America. Markets are lower overnight as we approach the holiday. Renewed concern over the bank stability in Europe has the euro under pressure. Macroeconomic influences could have a greater effect on our markets over the next few sessions as US traders take off for the holidays. The news from IMF increasing its coverage of the Eurozone debt was supportive for a short time, until the details were released. It looks like more talk with not a big enough stick. The US congress is headed home and they will be defending their position of inaction on weekend talk shows. Weather forecast is mild for the Midwest through the weekend. South America remains ideal for crop performance. The USDA will release the Weekly Supply and Demand Report on Friday morning. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Director of Research, completed a study analyzing what corn prices historically do from Thanksgiving until Christmas. Over the last 15 years there were 7 years where prices were higher with an average gain of 21.8 cents. There were 8 years that the price was lower with an average loss of 6.5 cents. The day before and the day after Thanksgiving Seasonal over 15 years had 7 with an average gain of 8.6 cents. Hogs and cattle were higher 10 and 9 times respectively out of 15 years. Beef product values are .49 higher in choice and .20 lower for select. Cash cattle trade has been inactive so far this week. Pork cutout values were down .87 on Tuesday. Normal trading hours today but remember markets close early on Friday. More detail can be found in the Allendale Research Center.
Markets as of 5:00AM
Corn: 8 to 10 lower              Beans: 16 to 18 lower      Wheat: 8 to 10 lower
Live Cattle: 40 to 60 lower                          Lean Hogs: 15 to 30 lower
Dollar: .57 higher                  Crude: 1.76 lower         Gold: 10.10 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans finally managed to find a bit of strength late in the session Tuesday. They settled above Monday’s low as well, but we need to see follow-though strength tomorrow to confirm a bottom might be forming.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Department of Commerce revised its estimate of third quarter GDP from 2.5% growth down to 2.0%. This was worse than analyst estimates for 2.4%. Though this is disappointing to many, some economists suggest it is not that bad. Preliminary projections suggest fourth quarter growth, not covered on this report, and could be over 3%.

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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