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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Harvest Complete For Most Farmers

Nov 18, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 18, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn making new lows and wheat higher. Soybeans are unchanged. USDA will give us harvest progress this afternoon which should show we are virtually done with harvest.

The EPA announcement of reducing the mandate for ethanol was in line with trade expectations. This change, however, will likely not impact ethanol production while crush margins remain positive.

CIF basis for corn has posted highs not seen since August. Harvest will be slow for the balance of season due to heavy weekend rains.

Weather in Argentina is favorable for the week ahead, Brazil is expected to have good coverage (up to 80%) as their planting progress reaches 75% complete.

CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money reducing short positions in corn by 39,660 contracts to leave them net short 139,060 contracts. They bought 23,326 bean contracts which was an addition to already long position. Managed funds added 27,716 contracts to make them short 47,251 contracts in wheat.

South Korea buys 10,000 tonnes of non-GMO soybeans from China over the weekend.

December grain contract options expire on Friday.

Cash cattle trade at 132 in the south late on Friday which was $1.00 higher than last week. Packers remain reluctant to pay up for cattle when their margins are in the red. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down 1.40 and select down .08. CME Feeder Index is 164.96.

Cash hogs weakness is mostly due to increased weights. Product movement will have competition at the retail counter the next few weeks. Pork cutout values were down 2.00 on Friday. Look for livestock futures to open lower this morning.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -4
  • Jan Beans   -0
  • Dec Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Dec Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Dec Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Dec Dlr     -.11
  • Dec S&P     +1.75
  • Dec Crude   -.46
  • Dec Gold    -4.30
Chart of the Day

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