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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Harvest Momentum To Pickup This Week

Sep 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are slightly lower as weather conditions improve for harvest this week.

The markets started lower on Sunday night as traders assess the weekend rains and the harvest week ahead. The weekend rains were as expected but we did get a little frost in the Northwest Midwest. However there is no frost in the forecast through Oct 7th.

Soybean futures have found some buyers after the November futures were down 66 cents last week. Next Monday, the USDA releases the Quarterly stocks report which will be watched closely by traders. The question being asked is "where will the USDA find enough soybeans to meet the exports and domestic usage?"

The crop conditions report this afternoon could show an improvement in the good to excellent category. Last week’s rains are expected to have improved late-planted soybeans. The bean harvest number could increase to 4 to 5%.

Corn harvest could be as much as 10 to 12% complete on this afternoon’s report. Corn yield updates from around Springfield, IL were running 15 to 20 bushels higher than expected however Champaign county IL producers are harvesting corn yielding less than their 5 year APH.

Allendale’s September Ag Leaders Webinar is set for September 24th, Tuesday at 8:00 PM.

Informa is looking for soybean production to be 3.224 million bushel which is higher than the USDA at 3.144.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money funds increased their net short positions by 39,525 last week while increasing soybean long positions by only 1,818.

Cattle on Feed Report results– On Feed 93%, Placed 89.0, Marketed 96.0

The Cattle on Feed report came in even a little more bullish than expected. USDA’s survey of the nation’s feedlots found that August Placements were 10.9% lower than August of last year. This Placement number, at 1.788 million head, is the lowest August of this current data series which goes back to 1996. It was a full 205,000 head smaller than the previous August low of 2005.

Cash cattle traded 1.00 higher than last week in late week trade. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down .62 and select down .94. The CME Feeder Index was up .12 at 156.89. Producer harvesting this week could reduce some movement of hogs. Pork cutout values were up .96. Look for CME livestock futures to open higher.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 1/2
  • Nov Beans   – 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   + 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Dec Dlr     -.04
  • Dec S&P     +2.50
  • Nov Crude   +.16
  • Dec Gold    -11.90


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