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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Harvest Results and Headlines Are Drivers

Aug 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as more harvest results are known. The USDA improved soybean conditions by 1% to 31% nationally while holding corn at 23% G/E. Soybeans in IL and IN showed a response to recent rains as the G/E improved by 2% in IL and 3% in IN. Grain futures are being driven by headlines as the well promoted crop tour crosses IN, IL, NE and IA; yields of 40 to 50 bushel an acre for corn has rekindled buying interest. A reminder: the week of last year’s crop tour provided a rally of 41 3/4 cents in Dec corn and the corn market topped on August 28, the following Monday. The soybeans topped on August 31. The ensuing sell-off was significant. We are working with producers to protect their crop insurance payments as insured fall price is determined during October. Stats-Canada will be releasing crop data on Wednesday and we have September option expiration on Friday. Macro markets are taking the back seat but the undertow could have an eventual impact on commodities as the EU zone struggles with debt and the fulfillment of austerity plans. Livestock producers are dealing with high feed costs and the availability of feed supplies. Will we see more herd reductions? Boxed beef was higher with choice up .82 and select up .53. Pork cutout values were up .46 on Monday. This week is a very important week for pricing opportunities, stay in touch with your Allendale representative and the Allendale Advisory on the web. Allendale is conducting the 23rd Annual Yield Survey and your help is needed. You know your fields better than anyone else. Go to and fill out the survey.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7 3/4
Nov Beans   +13
Sep Wheat   - 1/4
Oct Cattle stdy-lwr
Oct Hogs    stdy-lwr
Sep S&P     +1.00
Sep Dlr     -.02
Sep Crude   -.05
Dec Gold    -2.80
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strength in Nov. Soybeans has set the 8/10 $16.91 ½ contract high in the crosshairs. We feel that it is only a matter of time before we see this high taken out. If we do see a failure at the highs, we would like to see the 8/14 low of $15.87 hold in order to prevent a potential peak and reversal threat…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed the following changes in fund positions between August 7 and 14…corn +17,216, soybeans +5,811, wheat -872, live cattle +7,330, lean hogs -302.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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