Has Corn Made Near-term Lows?
Jul 17, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 17, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.
Grain futures are lower in a quiet overnight trading session. Weather conditions and potential record yields for row crops keep pressure on the market while buyers continue to search for reasons for a rally.
A cool temperature during pollination study says that we are having the 3rd coolest pollination period since 1980. In those cool years yields set new records. Get all the details at next week’s Allendale's Ag Leaders Update. Contact your Allendale Representative discuss a marketing strategy based on this study. Register for the Ag Leaders Update, here.
7:45 AM Update - Morning Coffeee Commentary:
The Weekly Export Sales data will be released today at 7:30 (View Results, Here):
Trade estimates for Trade estimates for
Wheat 0 400,000-550,000
Corn 250,000-350,000 350,000-450,000
Soybeans (-50,000)-75,000 500,000-700,000
Soymeal 20,000-90,000 25,000-150,000
Soyoil 0-20,000 0-10,000
After the recent price drop, end users are stepping up to the plate with USDA announcing new sales yesterday. As of July 3rd corn bookings are 28% less than a year ago. Soybean sales are running about 8% behind last year’s pace.
USDA raised its estimate of old crop corn for ethanol by 25 million bushels last week. The USDA’s whole-year goal is now a 9.2% increase over last year. Currently the year-to-date numbers are 9.7% over last year.
Yesterday’s November soybeans close above the pre-report level is being watched as an indicator a near-term bottom is being made.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has started a review of electronic trading hours in its cattle and hog contracts, and some think the focus will be on reducing hours to keep the contracts attractive.
The October contract of lean hog futures is in a consolidation phase and a move through recent highs or recent lows could provide a sizeable move in the direction of the breakout. Pork Cutout values are up .71.
Traders have been waiting for some good news to support futures prices. The cash trade at 155 yesterday would be steady with last week and better than expected price. Beef values are mixed with choice up .29 and select down .60. The CME Feeder index is 216.12.
Only a few days until Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" begins. The weather session will be presented by Ryan Martin, Allendale’s Meteorologist which takes place July 22nd at 2:00 PM CDT. The series will continue July 23rd and 24th at 2:00 pm with our grain and livestock outlooks. All sessions will be recorded for your viewing convenience.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
- Sep Corn -1 1/4
- Aug Beans -1 3/4
- Sep Wheat +0
- Aug Cattle +2.05
- Aug Hogs -.02
- Sep Dlr -.05
- Sep S&P +7.75
- Aug Crude +.93
- Aug Gold +3.20
Chart of the Day
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