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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Heat and Lack of Rain Fire Up Futures

Jul 02, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 2, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher this morning. Pockets of showers and thunderstorms brought around .50 inches or less across IA the northern half of IL, IN and OH. Temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 90’s this week ahead of another front moving through late this week. Next weekend’s rains could be very similar to this past weekend. Holiday trading hour changes start tomorrow at noon at which time the electronic and pit will close. No night sessions on Tuesday or Wednesday. The pit and electronic sessions will open at 9:30 on Thursday morning. Thursday evening and Friday will have regular trading hours. The USDA will give us a crop conditions report this afternoon. Traders are expecting a 4 to 6% decline in corn conditions. Traders saw fund buying in outside markets on Friday after EU leaders committed to reform of the EU banking system. The question this week is: "Will the funds jump on the weather rally in grains?" News out of Washington will be limited this week as congress is on holiday. However, there will be a lot of speeches given for July 4th celebrations in their home states. Watch for headlines out of EU but we would expect things to be quiet there for a few days. Heat is affecting the livestock industry as reports of cattle loss in feedlots are coming into our office. The hog industry will likely suffer some conception problems in sows therefore reducing supplies 6 to 8 months out. The Hogs and Pigs report was slightly negative but markets will be dominated by weather. Cash cattle traded at steady prices at 116. Demand is a concern for both pork and beef as the hot weather will likely limit some barbequing. Boxed beef was lower on Friday with choice down 1.46 and select down 2.24. Pork cutout values were down .72 to close out the week. A programing note: the Wake-Up Call will not be produced on Wednesday or Thursday morning. I will be back again on Friday. Watch the Morning Coffee on YouTube to catch the early calls on Thursday Morning. Have a Happy and Safe July 4th holiday week.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    +13 1/4
Jly Beans   +18
Jly Wheat   +11 3/4
Aug Cattle Stdy-hgr
Jly Hogs    Stdy-lwr
Sep S&P     +1.50
Sep Dlr     +.11
Aug Crude   -1.60
Aug Gold    -13.80
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s outside range day continues to imply a nervous market at the $6.50 level. We have made our highs on selling for the third day in a row which should imply weakness in the Dec. Corn. We still need to see a close below the 6/27 low of $6.17 ¼ or a close above the 6/27 $656 ¾ high to assume the next leg of the move.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
USDA’s efforts to resurvey farmers in early June found they added 541,000 corn acres from the March intentions survey. The trade was expecting a 226,000 increase. More importantly, USDA brought down it harvested acres estimate from 89.1 to 88.851 million (-249,000). This is slightly bullish to corn.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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