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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Holiday Markets Present Opportunity For Volatility

Dec 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 13, 2013 at 5:00 am.  

Grain futures are lower on follow-through selling. The technical and fund selling started yesterday after the release of strong export sales data. The algorithm traders jumped on the recirculating of old news with some new twists. Will we see more profit taking today or a quiet session?

The December contracts at the CBOT go off the board today at Noon, Central Time.

Talk of possible DDGs being canceled by China has meal and soybean traders concerned. If China doesn’t take DDGs (a byproduct of ethanol production) it now begins to compete with soymeal here at home.

Farm Bill negotiators say they will be able to work out a deal in January when the new session begins.

Midwest cash corn and soybean basis bids were steady on Thursday afternoon. But river bids at Morris, IL dropped 4 cents to +11F, corn bid at Council Bluffs, IA dropped 3 to -5H.

Funds were estimated to be net sellers of 7,000 corn contracts, 3,000 wheat contracts and 9,000 soybean contracts.

Beef cutout was lower again on Thursday with choice down 1.05 and select down .21. Weaker product is pushing packer margins deeper in the red. We still have a stand-off between packers and feedlots. Trade is hoping for at least a steady trade this week. Feeder cattle prices in futures and cash markets are benefiting from lower corn values. CME Feeder Index is 167.54.

Hog weights remain at record high levels while product demand is sluggish. Pork cutout values were down 2.27 on Thursday. As December contract nears expiration, the February contract will be judged on its premium to the cash index. PEDv cases jumped by 140 cases for the report from the last week in November.

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Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Mar Corn    -2 3/4
  • Jan Beans   -6 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -3
  • Feb Cattle  +.22
  • Feb Hogs    -.15
  • Mar Dlr     +.19
  • Mar S&P     +6.75
  • Jan Crude   -.45
  • Feb Gold    -1.10
Chart of the Day

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