Sep 30, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

How High is Too High For Feeder Cattle?

May 20, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 20, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are bargain hunting in wheat and corn. Soybeans are supported by tight old crop supplies.

Listent to Allendale's Midday Weather Audio Update

The USDA put the corn planted progress at 73%, compared to the 5 year average of 76%. The trade was looking for corn planting progress to be in 70 to 75% area. North Dakota only has 17% of corn planted compared to 54% average.

Soybean plantings came in at 33% done compared to the 33 to 36% trade was expecting.

Winter wheat conditions dropped another percent to 29% Good/Excellent. While the poor to very poor category increased by 2% to 44%.

Spring wheat is 49% planted versus 68% average. Most of these unplanted acres are in North Dakota.

Planting has resumed in many areas which has end-users raising basis bids to attract movement of corn. Soybean basis is holding steady.

NOAA’s forecast for the upcoming growing season weather in the Midwest is just what the "corn doctor ordered". In Allendale’s preliminary study it suggests a high probability to beat trend yield assuming the current weather outlook. If you factor in an increase in planted acreage, ending stocks will rise sharply in 2014/15 marketing year. Historically that is not friendly to price.

China sold over 80% of the 300,000 tonnes of soybeans offered at this week’s government auction.

Total global commodity assets under management fell to $322 billion in April 2014 from $324 billion in March 2014, Barclays Capital said on Monday.

The chief of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Monday that he hadn’t observed a reduction in the Russian troops massed near Ukraine, despite the announcement of a withdrawal by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar is May 27th, at 8:00 PM CDT.  Register Now. We will be discussing some of the bio-fuels issues in the headlines.

The high price of feeder cattle replacements have feedlots holding onto cattle a little longer. The supply shift from yearlings to calves is providing a good reason to add more weight. Cash feeder prices are being driven by extremely tight supplies, better grass conditions and current profitable closeouts. Can August Feeder Cattle futures reach $200.00? Why not? Beef values were higher with choice up1.24 and select up .83. The CME Feeder Index is 187.13.

Margins are positive and packers have reduced work hours so that they have enough hogs for this week. Traders will be watching how retailers market the high priced pork for the Memorial Day Holiday. Pork cutout values are up .48 at 114.67.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    +2 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +9 1/4
  • Jul Wheat   +10 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  -.10
  • Jun Hogs    +.12
  • Jun Dlr     +.05
  • Jun S&P     -1.25
  • Jun Crude   -.01
  • Jun Gold    -2.00

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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