Sep 18, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

How Low Can Oversold Indicators Go?

Jun 04, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 4, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are in positive territory as bargain hunters provide support. Old crop soybeans gain as traders wait for export sales data tomorrow morning.

Reporting this morning from Fort Wayne, IN where David and Jean Kohli are managers of Allendale’s Branch Office. In the trip across Northern IN we saw corn and soybeans getting off to a great start. There were farmers in the field side dressing corn and spraying soybeans.

Comments from ND farmers who are unable to plant corn prefer to avoid taking Prevent Plant Insurance; instead they will keep trying to plant beans through late June.

The greenhouse like weather conditions across the Midwest are providing the pressure to futures and basis. River terminals and some interior elevators lowered basis after yesterday’s weak futures trade. Farmer activity was very light.

Funds on Tuesday were estimated to be net sellers of 4,000 wheat contracts, 8,000 corn, 8,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal and bought a net 2,000 soyoil contracts.

The Ministry of Agriculture in China forecasts an output rise of summer grain and the 11th consecutive bumper harvest. Wheat harvest in China’s Shandong Province is beginning.

China’s government sold 72.7 percent of the soybeans offered at a weekly state auction.

The world weather forecast continues to look good as the models continue to show decent rains for Russia next week.

The US Senate confirmed Timothy Massad as Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

(Reuters) – Investors pulled $4 billion from U.S. commodity exchange-traded products in the first five months of the year, extending last year’s negative trend even as the pace of the redemptions from gold slowed, Thomson Reuters’ Lipper data showed on Monday.

Outside markets are waiting for the ADP employment report which is expected to confirm spring labor market recovery. The ECB on Thursday is widely expected to adopt multiple easing moves.

Tuesday was the third day of wholesale pork gains. It now puts pork more than $7 off its May 13th low. On the other hand cash hogs are only about $1 off their May 12 low. Pork cutout values were up .54.

Monday’s cattle slaughter was revised down to 113,000 head. Along with Tuesday’s light run of 118,000 head we are running 8% under last year. Though two days do not make a full week, it is clear this market is still struggling with an artificial lack of supply as producers put on more weight instead of new placements. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up .23 and select up 2.37. The CME Feeder Index is 194.49.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    +1 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +9
  • Jul Wheat   +5       
  • Jun Cattle  +.17
  • Jun Hogs    -.40
  • Jun Dlr     +.08
  • Jun S&P     -4.25
  • Jul Crude   +.74
  • Jun Gold    +1.50

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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