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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

How Much Could China Cancel?

Feb 13, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 13, 2014 at 4:50 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as soybeans gain most of yesterday’s losses.

Ethanol production still remains above USDA’s projection after five months of the marketing year. The ethanol industry is waiting for the EPA’s final 2014 decision. Additionally, we have word that two producers are finding a home for excess production on the export market.

Trade estimates for USDA’s weekly export sales report later this morning are: wheat 450,000-750,000 tonnes; corn 800,000-1,200,000 tonnes; soybeans 600,000-950,000 tonnes; soymeal 150,000-300,000 tonnes; soyoil 10,000-50,000 tonnes.

Traders will be watching for more announcements from USDA at 8:00 am concerning further cancellation of soybeans by China. Remember that as of last Thursday total US soybean commitments exceeded USDA’s revised soybean exports forecast by 1.9 mmt.

Basis remains steady except for a soybean processor in IN who raised bids to get supply. Movement of grain remains slow as weather is making it difficult in most areas.

At 10:00 am the USDA will release its 10 year baseline data.

The Senate approved a one-year extension of the Feds Borrowing Authority. The bill now goes to President Obama for signing.

Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen sees a bigger risk of a bubble in farm land values than in stocks, under questioning on Tuesday by Rep. Frank Lucas.

Cash bids are developing at 138 to 140 in the South while beef cutout values continue to fall. Choice beef was down 1.09 and select is down .53. Choice beef has now fallen below the 210 level. There have been no deliveries against the February futures. The CME Feeder Index is 169.60.

(Reuters) – A new swine virus, distinct from the deadly PEDv pig virus, has been found in pig fecal samples taken from four different farms in Ohio during January and early February, the Ohio Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday.

News of increasing cases of PEDv is providing support to summer month hog contracts. Pork cutout values were up 1.38 on Wednesday. The February contract expires tomorrow.

Markets as of 4:50 AM

  • Mar Corn    + 1/4
  • Mar Beans   +9 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  +.35
  • Apr Hogs    +.27
  • Mar Dlr     -.40
  • Mar S&P     -6.25
  • Mar Crude   -.72
  • Apr Gold    -4.50

Chart of the Day


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