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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Hurricane Isaac May Provide Rain to Lower Midwest

Aug 24, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 24, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher as traders adjust positions ahead of the tour data release. Headlines and option expiration should be the driving force for grain markets as we close out the week. Technical chart points will be watched going into the close today. The results of the ProFarmer’s crop tour will be released at 2:00 pm CDT. Option expiration today and Sept stops trading at the close, traders will have to decide if they want to exercise out of money strikes. We expect traders will also be focusing on the weather systems in the Atlantic and typhoon off of the coast of China as we close out the week. Forecasters are moving landfall of Hurricane Isaac further west; latest models are placing it to come on shore in southeastern Mississippi. With current projections to bring well need rain to the delta and Ohio River basin by mid to late next week. It should not be a factor for the Republican Convention in Tampa; FL starting Monday. Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc., believes Typhoon Bolaven which is expected to hit China next week will likely provide more benefit than harm. Weekly export data was neutral compared to trade expectation on Thursday. Details of the EU leader’s shuttle diplomacy meetings should provide some headlines as we go into the weekend. Livestock producers struggle with poor margins and difficulty finding feed supplies. Cash cattle traded steady to 1.00 higher than last week at 121. Dressed trade in NE was reported at 2.00 to 3.00 lower at 187 to 189. Boxed beef was slightly higher with choice up .10 and select up .07. Cash hogs remain weak while cutout values were .47 higher on Thursday. Your help would be appreciated by filling out the Allendale Yield Survey. No one knows your field’s production like you do. Sign up today for the August 28th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar .
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +14 1/4
Sep Wheat   +7
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    -.40
Sep S&P     -.25
Sep Dlr     -.11
Oct Crude   -.29
Dec Gold    -2.20
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Oct Crude Oil we put in a new high and closed lower creating an outside day down on the chart. In the short, term, this is a negative pattern that does imply a loss of momentum at higher prices. While we have not seen major support violated we must be cautious at these levels.  A close below the 8/10 $91.97 pivot low would indicate that the major uptrend has been violated…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The crop tour estimated Illinois corn yield at 121.6 bushels per acre. This puts them actually above USDA’s 116 yield posted on the August supply/demand report. This would also suggest Illinois will not be as worse as 1988. A similar nationwide yield as in 1988, -28% from trend for the nation, would put nationwide yields at 116 from USDA’s current 123.4.
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