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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Is June Going To Pass Without A Weather Scare?

Jun 06, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 6, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are mixed with new crop corn and soybeans under pressure again. Funds rolling out of the July contract are expected to be a feature today.

The overall pressure is not coming from a change in weather forecasts as some models are taking out some rain and adding in heat. The pressure is not coming from farmer selling. Elevators and processor bids for corn were steady to higher late yesterday. Gulf bids for soybeans were also firmer.

Export sales were very strong for old crop corn. Net soybean sales were positive when traders are thinking sales have to show net cancellations to make the USDA balance sheet work. Wheat sales were neutral.

US corn quoted at $211 per tonne is very competitive when compared to Argentina prices at $208 per tonne. South American soybeans are $30 to $45 cheaper than US gulf prices.

The Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, said there is a 70 percent chance of El Nino during the summer and increases to 80 percent during the fall and winter.

Russia’s Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its 2014 grain crop forecast to 96 million tonnes from 95 million tonnes after recent rains, its head Dmitry Rylko said on Thursday. Grain exports may rise to 28 million tonnes during the 2014/15 marketing year which starts on July 1, from 26 million tonnes expected this year.

Informa’s winter wheat estimate of 1.396 billion bushel is slightly below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May 9 forecast for 1.403 billion bushels.

Sixteen organizations in the Australia, Canada and the United States, representing producers and millers, publicly confirmed support for innovation in wheat, including the future commercialization of biotechnology.

Tom Vilsack, the US Sec. of Ag., told a crowd at the World Pork Expo that they would be requiring US hog producers to report PED findings. They have devoted a budget of $26 million to the PED problem. On a supply basis this week’s kill is only 1% under last year. That may not be a good predictor of this week’s kill as today is set for an unusually large decline (six plants out). Pork cutout value is done .30.

This week’s cattle slaughter could be down 7% from last year. Cash trade is holding out for late sales today with steady prices expected. Beef values are weaker with choice down 1.12 and select down 1.97.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    – 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +2
  • Jul Wheat   +2       
  • Jun Cattle  +.35
  • Jun Hogs    +.42
  • Jun Dlr     +.07
  • Jun S&P     +2.00
  • Jul Crude   +.13
  • Jun Gold    -.05

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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