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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Is Soybean Harvest Almost Complete?

Oct 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 28, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as weather forecasts and harvest progress weigh on markets.

Producers are working to get as many soybeans harvested before the rain moves into the Midwest in the middle of the week. This system is expected to hang around for 3 days then gives way to dry weather again. The USDA should provide some harvest progress estimates later today for corn and soybeans. Traders are looking for corn harvest to be 50% complete and soybeans around 80% done.

Argentina has well needed rain in the forecast over the next 5 days. This could provide a negative bias to CME contracts.

Corn and soybean demand remains good for exports, processors and ethanol plants. The lack of farmer selling is supporting basis level in soybeans. Corn being harvested at variable moisture levels is causing logistics problems.

Traders will be waiting for the USDA to gives us all of the catch-up data on export sales this Thursday.

The CFTC released the Commitment of Traders report through October 1st. They showed managed funds net short 151,918 corn contracts and net long 109,860 contracts of soybeans and 3,332 contracts of wheat. The CFTC is expected to get caught up on data on the November 8th report.

Egypt is expected to tender for wheat over the next few weeks for a supply that will cover their needs until late March of 2014.

Fed cattle futures got a boost from news that Tyson will stop buying market-ready cattle of Canadian origin. However, they will still buy feeder cattle and place the in US feedlots. This news further tightens supplies of market-ready cattle. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down .10 and select down .28. The CME Feeder index was 165.02 up .23.

Pork cutout values were up .03. The cash hog index was 91.40 up .15. December futures closed strong but still remains at discount to the cash index. Hog futures are showing signs of a technical overbought condition. We suggest using risk management tools to protect positions.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar for October is scheduled for Tuesday evening, sign-up today.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    - 3/4
  • Nov Beans   -3
  • Dec Wheat   -1 1/2
  • Dec Cattle  steady
  • Dec Hogs    steady
  • Dec Dlr     -.01
  • Dec S&P     +4.50
  • Dec Crude   -.02
  • Dec Gold    -.60
Chart of the Day

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